Duan's 150 HKD Bet: Pop Mart's Value Floor or Next 30% Trap?

Duan Yongping's 150 HKD buying zone is now visible

The rebound back above 160 HKD mattered less than the fact that Duan had already built exposure when the stock was near 150 HKD. He started with put options and later added direct shares around that level, instead of chasing the previous high near 337 HKD.

Now that his stake has risen to 7.65%, or 102 million shares, that 150 HKD zone has become a visible reference point for the market. A stake of that size does not create a hard floor, but it does make one round number hard for investors to ignore whenever the stock pulls back.

The latest pressure test followed the new Labubu Hair Salon series, which got a weaker-than-expected market response, with some variants trading below retail immediately. That split is the debate now: some will see a single-launch reset, while others will see fresh evidence that the stock still has room to compress.

The case for 150 HKD rests on earnings, not just brand excitement

If 150 HKD has a value argument, it is because the latest results changed what investors could realistically support. Pop Mart reported 184.7% revenue growth and 284.5% profit growth, while Duan said the earnings changed his view on profitability and sustainability. That helps explain why his interest shifted from cautious curiosity to active accumulation.

Why 150 HKD can look reasonable

Duan's process was deliberate rather than impulsive. He began with put options to collect premium and only get long if the stock became cheaper, then added direct shares around 150 HKD after the results made the business look less like an uncertain consumer fad. He also said there is a high probability he won't sell within 10 years, which frames the position as long-term ownership rather than a chart trade.

At 150 HKD, the stock is not being valued on story alone. The recent growth means investors are also looking at a business that has already scaled quickly and turned a large portion of that growth into profit. That does not make 150 HKD a guaranteed floor, but it does make the level easier to defend on earnings power than on hype alone.

What the weaker Labubu launch actually challenges

The recent Labubu Hair Salon launch got a weaker-than-expected market response, and some variants traded below official retail prices right away. Bears do not need that to be a disaster. They only need it to show that demand can weaken between product waves.

That is why the launch matters now. Duan's long-term case works only if Pop Mart's cash generation is durable rather than purely episodic. Reports say he believes the business model has matured and remains bullish on profitability over the next 10 to 20 years, so any sign that newer launches are not repeating past intensity becomes a useful reality check on that view.

What investors should watch next

If upcoming results show that the softer launch did not materially hurt margins or reveal overreliance on one IP wave, 150 HKD should keep looking like a defensible value zone. If the opposite happens, the earnings-based bull case will need to be rewritten.