DT Midstream’s 2026 Q2 Earnings Call: MIST Timeline Discrepancies and Supply-Demand Strategy Contradictions

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Date of Call: Jul 30, 2026

Guidance:

• Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA expected to be in line with full-year guidance, but lower than the strong Q2 2026, driven by maintenance and lower Northeast gathering volumes.
• 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed.
• 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook reaffirmed and increased.
• Committed capital for 2026 and 2027 raised to include ~$425M and ~$560M respectively from new FID projects announced in Q2.
• Dividend increased to 88 cents per share, unchanged from prior quarter, with commitment to grow in line with adjusted EBITDA.

Business Commentary:

Organic Growth and Project Commercialization:

• DT Midstream announced reaching FID on approximately $300 million of new organic growth projects in Q2, bringing the total commercialized backlog to 60% of $3.4 billion.
• The growth is driven by strong demand from LNG, power generation, and data center development, supported by long-term agreements and strategic market positioning.

Pipeline Expansion and Market Demand:

• Key projects include the expansion of the Haynesville system, adding 200 mmcf per day capacity, and the first phase of modernized capacity serving the Twin Cities in Minnesota.
• These expansions are supported by new long-term agreements, reflecting robust demand and strategic connectivity to supply sources like East Texas and the Permian Basin.

Financial Performance and Outlook:

• The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $305 million for Q2, with pipeline segment results lower by $14 million due to seasonal factors, while gathering segment results improved by $11 million.
• DT Midstream reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance and increased committed capital for new investments, reflecting confidence in ongoing project execution and market demand.

Strategic Infrastructure Investment:

• DT Midstream highlighted the critical need for $1 trillion in new pipeline infrastructure investment over the next 25 years to connect supply to growing demand centers in North America.
• The company is positioned to benefit from this demand, with a strategic focus on expanding its interstate gas pipeline footprint and leveraging opportunities in the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions.

Regulatory Environment and Future Opportunities:

• The regulatory processes across states are foundational to demand growth, with significant interest from utilities and long-term demand pull across DT Midstream's footprint.
• This regulatory backdrop supports durable investment opportunities, with expansions like G3 and future projects like G4 expected to follow rigorous approval processes, enhancing the company's long-term growth prospects.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed confidence in full-year and long-term outlook, citing 'strong results and outlook,' 'constructive market fundamentals,' and that 'the organization is firing on all cylinders.' They noted '60% of our $3.4 billion organic project backlog' is now commercialized, with 'more than 80% being committed to pipeline projects,' and described the market environment as 'highly constructive.'

Q&A:

• Question from Theresa Chin: Could you elaborate on the commercialization progress and process for MIST, specifically on the competitive landscape evolving and scope of the phasing approach?
  Response: Project phasing is driven by customer demand, with potential first phase in service as early as end of 2029; size and scale are similar to G3, and commercialization is progressing with binding precedent agreements.

• Question from Theresa Chin: On the supply options side for MIST, what factors are influencing your decisions and development process relative to REX, Boreal, or other alternatives?
  Response: Midwestern pipeline has multiple supply options (Vector, Alliance, RECs, Texas Gas, Tennessee Gas), providing flexibility and optionality, making it attractive to customers; it is agnostic to specific supply pathways.

• Question from Jeananne Salisbury: If Enbridge's Beacon project moves forward, does that materially increase the need for Millennium Pipeline or another third-party pipeline option?
  Response: Yes, Beacon and Millennium are complementary; as Beacon commercializes, it drives incremental opportunity for Millennium, bringing supply to the receipt point.

• Question from Jeananne Salisbury: As Permian pipelines come online, could less Hainesville gas go to LNG and more go southeast, changing the outlook for reaching full LEAP capacity?
  Response: Permian gas is chasing both LNG and domestic demand; the expansion enhances connectivity to Carthage, but robust demand growth over 5-10 years will require significant Hainesville gas, driving opportunities across the entire pipeline ecosystem.

• Question from Spiro Dunas: Regarding the 2027 CapEx increase, what's changed—the slide points to a step change. How much is acceleration of projects versus new opportunities?
  Response: The increase is primarily due to the capital allocation for the new projects announced today (FID'd in Q2), with the majority of the CapEx for these projects falling in 2027.

• Question from Spiro Dunas: Could you put a finer point on your competitive advantage in the Mississippi region given in-flight competitor projects?
  Response: Midwestern's advantage is its 'location, location, location' as the last mile to load centers, coupled with multiple supply optionality, making it flexible and attractive without being married to one supply pathway.

• Question from Keith Stanley: When you refer to MIST scale, are you referring to capacity or capital investment?
  Response: MIST is similar to G3 in both size and scale, and in terms of capital investment.

• Question from Keith Stanley: Any early conversation regarding G4? Could it start in 2027?
  Response: G4 is derivative of the rigorous regulatory process in Wisconsin and Iowa; it's a multi-year journey, with earliest in-service likely in the early 2030s.

• Question from Alex (for Julian): Are you seeing any in-line or curtailment issues on Hainesville, and could there be potential for LEAP expansions beyond the 200 mmcf announced?
  Response: Based on the recent expansion project, there is potential for incremental LEAP expansions; Hainesville volumes are expected to remain flat into Q3 as supply and demand balance.

• Question from Alex (for Julian): Regarding Guardian, could data center demand in Iowa necessitate an expansion separate from G4?
  Response: The greater Wisconsin/Iowa market is monitored closely; G4 is a derivative of the utility regulatory process in those areas.

• Question from Jeremy Toonit: If G4 is the order of magnitude similar to G3 in scope and CapEx, how should we think about it?
  Response: Management is bullish but prefers to wait for demand to crystallize first; capital costs are rising over time, but market share expectations could be similar to prior expansions.

• Question from Jeremy Toonit: Could you remind us of the capacity and growth potential for the Nexus interconnect?
  Response: Nexus is fully contracted with limited available capacity; expansion is possible via compression, and monetizing existing capacity is the first step, with future expansion to follow market demand.

• Question from Samia Jain: Following the prior recontracting of Midwestern, what percentage of the portfolio is up for renewal in the next 12-24 months, and how do pricing dynamics look?
  Response: The exact percentage is not on hand, but renewal tenors are expected to increase in term as the market understands the long-term value of in-ground assets, with one customer seeking a 25-year renewal.

• Question from Samia Jain: On the recent Guardian expansion filing, can you provide more color on the five utility shippers and 20-year contracts? Would you pursue similar customers for G4?
  Response: G4 is expected to have similar market support and customer base as G3, with a lot of utility-based demand.

• Question from John Mackey: Is there any opportunity to feed Midwest projects with Haynesville supply or reroute supply from farther west?
  Response: This is a strategic priority; with significant projected demand growth, the company is focused on participating in the investment required to move supply from basins to demand centers, though it's still early days.

• Question from John Mackey: From a macro perspective, when might solutions to this supply-demand imbalance start appearing?
  Response: Projects will likely take 3-4 years from concept to in-service, with earliest potential in the early 2030s, as demand manifests and regulatory processes unfold.

• Question from Theresa Chin (follow-up): Given Gulf Coast consolidation headlines, how do you view the strategic merits and potential impact on future expansion?
  Response: Consolidation may shrink the competitive landscape, but the focus is on commercializing the robust organic opportunity set; M&A has a higher bar in this high-growth environment.

Contradiction Point 1

Timing for New Large Pipeline Projects (MIST, G4)

Inconsistent timeline for major project commercialization and construction creates uncertainty about future growth and capital allocation.

What was Theresa Chin's role in the company's earnings performance? - Theresa Chin

2026Q2: The first phase potentially in service as early as end of 2029. - David Slater(CEO), Chris Zona(COO)

Can you provide an update on the commercialization progress, including the evolving competitive landscape and phasing approach for MIST, and how you will assess these factors over the next few months? - John Mackey

2026Q2: The earliest these [new projects] could be realized is the early 2030s, given the multi-year journey from concept to commercialization. - David Slater(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Assessment of Supply-Demand Disconnect Solutions

Contradiction on the company's role in solving regional supply-demand imbalances affects strategic clarity and investor perception of growth drivers.

John Mackey - John Mackey

2026Q2: The company is focused on commercializing existing assets. This creates a higher bar for M&A in the current environment. - David Slater(CEO)

"When do you anticipate solutions to address the supply and demand imbalance?" - John Mackey

2026Q2: This requires significant new investment. The demand is real and will drive the percolation of large pipeline projects. - David Slater(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

MIST Project Capacity and Phasing

Guidance on project scale shifts from being potentially larger than G3 to being explicitly comparable in size, affecting demand expectations and project economics.

Theresa Chin (Barclays) - Theresa Chin (Barclays)

2026Q2: The MIST project is expected to have a southerly and northerly expansion phase... The project is similar in size and scale to G3... - David Slater(CEO), Chris Zona(COO)

Could you elaborate on the commercialization progress, the evolving competitive landscape, and the phasing approach for MIST, including your assessment of these factors over the next few months? - Keith Stanley (Wolfe Research)

20260430-2026 Q1: The goal is to aim for an expansion above 1.5 Bcf/day... If 50% successful, it would be larger than the Guardian G3 expansion. - David Slater(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

LEAP Expansion Potential and Capacity

The capacity target for LEAP expansion is presented as fixed at 4 BCFD versus indicating potential for further incremental expansion beyond that, creating confusion about growth limits.

Jeananne Salisbury (Bank of America) - Jeananne Salisbury (Bank of America)

2026Q2: The ongoing LEAP expansion (200 MMCF/day) supports accessing this demand. - David Slater(CEO)

Does the shift of gas from Hainesville to the southeast due to Permian pipelines coming online impact your ability to reach the full 4 BCFD capacity on LEAP? - Theresa Chen (Barclays)

20260430-2026 Q1: LEAP is running at its design capacity of 2.1 Bcf/day and has expansion potential up to 4 Bcf/day. - David Slater(CEO) & Christopher Zona(COO)

Contradiction Point 5

Commercialization Timeline and Demand-Driven Process

Timeline certainty shifts from being "right in front" to being entirely dependent on demand and binding agreements, altering perceptions of project immediacy and strategic focus.

Theresa Chin - Theresa Chin

2026Q2: Commercialization is driven by customer demand... The first phase potentially in service as early as end of 2029. - David Slater(CEO), Chris Zona(COO)

Could you elaborate on the commercialization progress, the evolving competitive landscape, and the scope of the phasing approach for MIST, including your assessment over the next few months? - Keith Stanley (Wolfe Research)

2025Q4: It is a hot topic and is right in front of the company... It is a top priority. - David Slater(CEO)

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