Dow Rises, Nasdaq Slips as Traders Await Fed Decision and Oracle Earnings

The hard truths about building wealth👇

U.S. stocks opened mixed Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 71.66 points, or 0.15%, to 47,811.0, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 75.72 points, or 0.32%, to 23,470.2 and the S&P 500 edged down 3.73 points, or 0.05%, to 6,842.78. The small-cap Russell 2000 eased 0.13 point, or 0.05%, to 250.74 as traders weighed an expected Federal Reserve rate cut against lingering uncertainty about the economic outlook heading into 2026.

The CBOE Volatility Index rose 2.16% to 17.02, extending an overnight climb that has nudged the gauge of expected S&P 500 swings back toward the upper end of its recent range. Gold futures for February delivery added 0.31% to $4,230.90, while crude-oil futures for January slipped 0.36% to $58.67. Bitcoin traded lower, down 0.93% at $90,570.91, as crypto prices continued to consolidate near record territory.

Behind the cross-asset moves is a steadily improving macro picture that nonetheless carries plenty of caveats. A new outlook from Citi Research projects global growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, with headline inflation hovering near 2% and core around 2.5%. The bank characterizes the backdrop as “Goldilocks” after several years in which forecasters “consistently underestimated the resilience of the global economy.”

That benign baseline is tempered by the Trump administration’s aggressive use of tariffs. Citi notes that the U.S. tariff rate has jumped to roughly 15% from 2.5%, the highest in more than eight decades. While the pass-through to consumer prices has been slower than expected—thanks in part to firms absorbing costs—the bank warns that tariffs remain an adverse supply shock for the U.S. and a demand shock abroad, one of five key risks it is monitoring for 2026.

On the household side of the ledger, Bank of America Institute finds that a surge in Sunbelt construction and a cooling of domestic migration have pushed vacancy rates in the South to their highest since early 2019, easing the pressure on renters. Median rent payments were flat year-over-year in October in Bank of America’s data, even as official CPI rent measures rose 3.4%, giving renters—especially lower-income households—scope to divert more of their budgets toward discretionary spending. That dynamic could help cushion consumption next year, even as wage growth moderates.

Meanwhile, equity investors are bracing for a closely watched earnings report from Oracle on Wednesday. The software giant has amassed a $455 billion backlog, much of it tied to long-dated compute commitments from OpenAI, and is pursuing a $500 billion capital-expenditure program that has pushed free cash flow into the red and left the company with roughly $100 billion in net debt, according to Oracle Investor Relations. “I don’t really think the numbers really matter here this quarter,” said Angelo Zino, senior equity analyst at CFRA, arguing that the stock will trade on questions about debt sustainability, backlog quality and the durability of AI demand rather than a small earnings surprise.

For now, the mix of firmer global growth, softer rent inflation and still-elevated policy and balance-sheet risks is keeping investors on edge. A higher VIX, steady gold and a softer oil price at the opening bell suggest markets are hedging against shocks rather than fully embracing the Goldilocks narrative.