Dow Futures Rise 0.07% as Markets Await Fed Signals and Retail Earnings

Dow futures edged higher ahead of a pivotal week for financial markets, as investors awaited key developments from the Federal Reserve and major retailers. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 30 points, or 0.07%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also posted modest gains. The market remains cautiously optimistic, buoyed by expectations that the Fed may resume rate cuts in the coming months, supported by a cooling labor market and mixed inflation data [1].

The S&P 500 hit a record high last week as corporate earnings continued to exceed expectations. Investors are betting that the Fed will see the current economic climate as a justification for easing monetary policy. However, the week ahead could test this optimism with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) July meeting minutes on Wednesday and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday [1].

The minutes from the July meeting are expected to reveal the extent of internal debate among policymakers, particularly regarding the decision to keep rates unchanged despite two dissenting votes. Powell’s speech has historically been a key moment for the Fed to provide forward guidance, though analysts warn that the central bank may avoid sending clear signals this year. This could lead to uncertainty in the market and potentially dampen the current rally [1].

At the same time, major retailers including Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, and Walmart are set to report earnings, offering a clearer picture of how tariffs are affecting pricing and profit margins. While companies have absorbed some of the increased costs for now, the sustainability of this strategy remains uncertain, especially if consumer demand weakens. The results will be closely watched to determine whether retailers are passing on the costs to consumers or absorbing them, which could influence broader inflation expectations [1].

Citi’s chief U.S. economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, has highlighted that firms may struggle to pass on tariff costs to consumers if demand remains soft. This could lead to reduced profit margins and a potential slowdown in hiring. The outcome of these reports will likely shape investor sentiment, as markets look for clues on how companies are managing the complex interplay of tariffs, inflation, and monetary policy [1].

Energy markets are also in focus, with U.S. oil prices declining slightly as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine continue. U.S. oil prices dropped 0.21% to $62.67 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 0.32% to $65.64. The U.S. dollar weakened 0.11% against the euro but remained unchanged against the yen. Gold prices also declined, falling 0.11% to $3,378.80 per ounce [1].

With markets entering a critical week, the coming developments from the Fed and major retailers will be closely scrutinized. Investors are keenly watching to see if the current rally can be sustained or if shifting policy signals and economic conditions will challenge recent optimism [1].

Source: [1] title1.............................(https://fortune.com/2025/08/17/stock-market-today-dow-futures-jerome-powell-jackson-hole-walmart-earnings-tariffs/)