DOT/USDT Market Overview: October 3–4, 2025

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• Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) declined from $4.384 to $4.251 over 24 hours, ending near 61.8% Fibonacci support.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged at 4.384 with heavy volume, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded in the 19:00–05:00 ET window, with RSI and MACD confirming bearish momentum.
• Turnover surged to $213 million during a key sell-off, but volume flagged divergence after 03:30 ET.
• Price consolidated above 4.30–4.316 support levels, with limited follow-through above 4.34–4.35.

Polkadot/Tether (DOT/USDT) opened at $4.29 on October 3 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $4.384, and bottomed at $4.251 before closing at $4.318 at 12:00 ET on October 4. Total volume across 24 hours was 3,684,021.37 DOT, with notional turnover of $15,804,348. The asset saw a volatile session, marked by sharp intraday corrections and uneven volume distribution.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish reversal pattern at the 4.384 high, with a long upper wick and bearish confirmation below 4.33. A key support zone emerged between 4.30 and 4.316, where price consolidated overnight. A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the early morning on October 4, suggesting potential bounce. A doji at 04:45 ET and another at 01:15 ET signaled indecision and potential trend pause.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below price, confirming bearish momentum in the late hours. The 50- and 200-period daily MAs are currently in a bearish alignment, with DOTUSDT trading below both. A 50-period MA on the daily chart appears to be forming a key psychological level near 4.36, which could serve as a pivot for a near-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish after 19:00 ET, with a deepening bearish histogram during the sell-off. RSI fell below 30 twice during the session, indicating oversold conditions but without strong rebound. The second oversold trigger at 04:45 ET was followed by a modest rally, suggesting a possible bottoming process. The bearish divergence between RSI and price after 03:30 ET raises questions about the strength of the short-term support.

Volume & Turnover

Notional turnover spiked to $6.5 million at 19:15 ET and $4.5 million at 05:30 ET, aligning with bearish price action. However, volume during the 04:00–06:00 ET consolidation period remained below average, indicating reduced conviction in the recovery. A divergence between volume and price emerged after 03:30 ET, as price recovered but volume waned—suggesting the sell-off may not be fully exhausted.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 4.251–4.384 swing is at 4.316, which has acted as a minor support. A 38.2% retracement at 4.34 and a 61.8% at 4.35 could offer resistance if the recovery continues. On the daily chart, a key Fibonacci level at 4.42 may serve as a reentry point for longs, though bearish momentum remains dominant.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described aims to identify high-probability short entries after a confirmed bearish reversal pattern and divergence in RSI and MACD. It triggers a sell signal at the close of a bearish engulfing or a key bearish pinbar, with a stop placed above the high of the reversal candle. A target is set at the nearest Fibonacci support, with a trailing stop activated after a 10% move. Given the recent bearish divergence and confirmation at 4.384 and 4.305, DOTUSDT appears to align with this strategy. However, a breakout above 4.35 could invalidate the setup, highlighting the importance of tight risk management.