Don't Bet on Institutional Investors to Run Bitcoin to $150K: Researcher

Bitcoin continues to face a mixed outlook in 2026 as institutional demand provides a consistent bid in a market where long-term holders are actively distributing their coins. The tug-of-war between accumulation and distribution has become a defining feature of the year. This dynamic raises questions about which force will ultimately dominate the market according to market analysis.

The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, which has historically driven bullish and bearish trends, is being questioned in 2026. While the cycle remains relevant, its impact is expected to be more moderate than in past cycles. The year 2025, which followed the 2024 halving, marked a deviation from historical patterns with a negative annual return, yet it still produced a late-year peak consistent with past market trends.

Institutional interest in Bitcoin is anticipated to rebound in 2026, according to JPMorgan. This is partly attributed to regulatory developments such as the anticipated passage of the Crypto Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act) in the U.S. The bill aims to further entrench institutional adoption of digital assets.

Why Did Institutional Interest Emerge as a Key Factor in 2026?

Bitcoin's institutional adoption is expected to expand in 2026 as regulatory clarity improves. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted over $57.3 billion in inflows, and further institutional participation is anticipated through various channels.

However, institutional flows have not been consistent throughout 2026. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded outflows on Tuesday, with $483.38 million in withdrawals. This marked the largest single-day outflow since early January. Data shows institutional demand is showing early signs of weakening.

How Did Bitcoin Respond to Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Shifts in January 2026?

Bitcoin's price has been volatile in early 2026 as macroeconomic and geopolitical developments influence risk appetite. On January 21, Bitcoin traded below $90,000 after a more than 8% drop over the previous six days. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. President Donald Trump's comments on tariffs and the EU's potential response, added to the bearish sentiment according to market analysis.

Investors are also watching for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision and any potential political developments. If the Fed's independence is challenged, it could validate the core thesis of Bitcoin maximalists: that fiat monetary systems are inherently vulnerable to political influence.

What Are Analysts Watching in the Coming Weeks?