Old Dominion Freight Slides 3.02% As Bearish Signals Converge Below Key Support

Candlestick Theory
Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) exhibits a bearish short-term structure, closing at $144.89 with a 3.02% decline on the last session. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged on September 12, 2025, where the red candle’s body overwhelmed the prior day’s green candle, signaling rejection near the $150.84 resistance. Support resides at $140.71 (September 4 low), while resistance tightens between $149.39–150.84. The recent failure to sustain gains above $149 suggests weakening momentum, with critical support near $144.50 holding intraday on September 12.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration underscores persistent bearish momentum. Current price ($144.89) trades below all key averages: 50-day MA (~$160), 100-day MA (~$168), and 200-day MA (~$180). The 50-day crossed below the 100-day in July 2025, triggering a "death cross," reinforcing intermediate-term weakness. Repeated rejections near the 50-day MA since August highlight its role as dynamic resistance. The widening gap between shorter and longer-term averages confirms entrenched downtrend conditions, with no imminent bullish crossover signals.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) displays a bearish trajectory, with the MACD line below the signal line and histogram in negative territory since August 2025. Recent consolidation shows marginal histogram improvement but remains below zero, suggesting weak momentum recovery. KDJ (14,3,3) oscillates near oversold territory, with the %K line at ~25 and %D at ~30. While KDJ nears oversold (<30), the absence of bullish crossovers or divergence suggests limited reversal potential. Both oscillators align in signaling continued downside bias.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) show pronounced volatility contraction, with bandwidth narrowing to 8% of the 20-day SMA ($148) – the tightest squeeze since May 2025. Price breached the lower band ($141.50) on September 4, triggering a reactive bounce, but closed back within bands. The September 12 close ($144.89) hovers near the lower band, implying continued bearish pressure. Narrow bands historically preceded volatile breakouts; a sustained close below $141.50 may trigger accelerated downside.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis reveals bearish confirmation. The September 4 reversal from $140.71 occurred on elevated volume (3.28M shares), validating support. However, subsequent rebound attempts (e.g., September 11 +2.11%) saw muted volume (1.68M vs. 10-day avg ~1.8M), signaling weak buying conviction. The September 12 decline occurred on above-average volume (1.86M shares), confirming distribution. Volume divergence during recovery rallies undermines sustainability, favoring downside continuation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
14-day RSI at 42 reflects neutral momentum, retreating from overbought levels (>60) seen during the September rebound. RSI has not breached oversold (<30) since September 4 (low of 26), suggesting residual downside room. Crucially, RSI’s lower highs since August contrast with price’s sideways action, forming a bearish divergence. While not oversold, this divergence warns of latent selling pressure. RSI’s failure to hold above 50 during recovery rallies signals fragile momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the swing from $140.71 (Sept 4 low) to $150.84 (Sept 11 high): 23.6% retracement sits at $148.45, 38.2% at $146.97, and 61.8% at $144.58. The September 12 close ($144.89) aligns precisely with the 61.8% support. A decisive break below $144.58 could extend losses toward $140.71. Longer-term Fib drawn from the November 2024 high ($233.26) to the September 2025 low ($140.71) highlights critical resistance at 23.6% ($177) – a level unlikely to be tested without fundamental catalysts.
Synthesis & Confluence
Confluence exists at $144.50–144.89, where 61.8% Fibonacci support, recent candlestick structure, and Bollinger lower band converge. A breakdown below this zone may catalyze a retest of $140.71. Bearish consensus emerges across MACD’s negative histogram, volume divergences, and RSI’s failed recovery above 50. No significant bullish divergences are observed. Probability favors continued downside pressure, with recovery potential contingent on reclaiming $149 resistance and attracting high-volume accumulation. The primary trend remains bearish below the 50-day MA (~$160).