Old Dominion Freight Drops 3.56% Amid Bearish Technical Signals

Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) declined 3.56% in the latest session, closing at $141.79 on elevated volume. This sharp move warrants a multi-faceted technical assessment using the specified framework.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals bearish dominance. The sharp decline on September 17th formed a long red candle, decisively breaking below the September 15th low of $143.81, establishing new immediate resistance near $144.89. This follows a failed bullish engulfing pattern on September 11th, which was invalidated by subsequent downside momentum. Key support now converges around the September 17th low of $141.54, while resistance firms near $145.25 (prior minor swing low).
Moving Average Theory
All key moving averages exhibit bearish alignment. The 50-day MA (approx. $165) rests well above the 100-day MA (~$170) and the 200-day MA (~$185), confirming a long-term downtrend. Price trading far below these averages signals persistent selling pressure. Near-term bounces may face resistance near the 50-day MA, which has consistently capped rallies since July 2025.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD remains entrenched in negative territory below its signal line, showing no decisive bullish crossover despite recent oversold conditions. KDJ shows mixed signals: The %K line briefly exited oversold territory (below 20) in early September but quickly reversed downward, reflecting weak momentum recovery. Current KDJ positioning (%K: 25, %D: 30, J: 15) suggests ongoing bearish pressure without extreme oversold readings.
Bollinger Bands
The bands expanded sharply during the September 17th sell-off, indicating rising volatility favoring bears. Price closed near the lower band ($140.50 estimated), reflecting strong downside momentum. The absence of a clear rejection from the lower band implies potential for further downside, though a mean-reversion bounce toward the middle band ($150) could emerge if volatility contracts.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution is evident: Down days (September 17, September 12, August 28) frequently occurred on above-average volume, confirming selling interest. Recent weakness was amplified by the highest volume in a month on September 17th. Conversely, recovery attempts (e.g., September 11th) saw muted volume, undermining their sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approx. 36) is neutral-to-oversold but has not yet reached extreme levels (<30). Notably, ODFL’s RSI has failed to sustain moves above 50 during recent relief rallies, reinforcing bearish momentum. While approaching oversold territory, its warning nature is highlighted by prior instances where RSI remained depressed during extended declines (e.g., July-August 2025).
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels between the April 2025 peak ($233.26) and the September 17th low ($141.54):
- The 61.8% retracement (~$178) was breached decisively in July.
- The 78.6% level ($155) was lost in August.
Price now tests the psychological extension support near $140 (just below the September 17th low). A sustained break here could target the 100% projection at $141.54 – aligned with the current low. Major resistance now resides at the 50% retracement ($187.50).
Confluence & Divergence
Significant bearish confluence exists:
- Breakdown below Fib support ($155) with high volume.
- Price rejection near moving averages during rallies.
- MACD/KDF confirming weak momentum recoveries.
No material bullish divergence is observed, though RSI and KDJ are nearing oversold levels. However, the lack of price stabilization amid elevated volume suggests sellers retain control, increasing the probability of testing the $140 psychological support level. Should this level hold, consolidation may occur, but a decisive break could trigger accelerated selling towards the $135 zone.