Dominion Energy's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge on Charybdis Timeline, CVOW Project Risks, and Monopile Installation Pace

Date of Call: October 31, 2025

Financials Results

• EPS: $1.06 operating EPS per share (Q3), includes $0.03 RNG 45Z credits and $0.06 worse-than-normal weather; GAAP EPS $1.16. Year-over-year drivers vs Q3 2024: +$0.06 regulated investment growth, +$0.08 increased sales, +$0.05 DESC rate-case settlement, +$0.03 higher Contracted Energy margins; offset by worse weather, higher DD&A and higher financing costs.

Guidance:

• Full-year 2025 operating EPS narrowed to $3.33–$3.48, midpoint preserved at $3.40 (inclusive of RNG 45Z).
• Reaffirming all other existing financial guidance.
• Completed 2025 financing plan; derisking ATM equity and maintaining credit targets.
• Q4 (early 2026) will include a comprehensive capital investment forecast update through 2030.
• CVOW: first turbine install expected late next month; first power late Q1 2026; project completion expected end‑2026 (some final turbines could slip to early 2027).
• CVOW cost now $11.2B (unused contingency $206M); 2026 rider revenue requirement estimated at $665M.

Business Commentary:

• Financial Performance and Earnings Trends:
• Dominion Energy reported third quarter operating earnings of $1.06 per share, which included worse weather effects and higher costs.
• The positive factors contributing to earnings included $0.06 from regulated investment growth, $0.08 from increased sales, and $0.05 from the DESC rate case settlement.

• Despite these factors, the company faced headwinds from sales and weather, but maintained confidence in achieving or exceeding guidance expectations.

• Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Project Progress:

• The CVOW project is now 2/3 complete, with major equipment progress, including all monopile installation and turbine fabrication on schedule.
• First turbine installation is expected in late November, with first power anticipated by late Q1 2026.

• Project costs increased to $11.2 billion due to accelerated recognition of steel tariffs, with no material financial impact expected from the potential slippage of a few final turbines into early 2027.

• Data Center Demand and Expansion:

• Dominion Energy reported 47 gigawatts of data center demand, increasing by 17% from December 2024, with 10 gigawatts committed under ESA.
• The growth is attributed to strong demand and optimal fundamentals of Virginia's business-friendly environment, reliable electricity, and network connectivity.

• The company is well-positioned to meet demand, with over 100 delivery point requests representing 25 gigawatts through 2031.

• Capital Investment and Financial Outlook:

• The company completed its 2025 financing plan and reaffirmed all other financial guidance, including capital investment through 2030.
• Dominion Energy derisked future equity needs by strengthening its balance sheet, with 15% FFO to debt and credit-related targets preserved.
• The company is focused on deploying regulated capital efficiently, maintaining balance sheet conservatism, and offering value to shareholders.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "I am highly confident in our ability to deliver on our financial plan."; "Progress on CVOW continues to go very well"; reaffirmed guidance and completed 2025 financing plan; highlighted robust data center demand (47 GW in various stages) and execution milestones (100% monopile installation).

Q&A:

• Question from Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division): How should we price election risk to CVOW and have you spoken to lawmakers about potential political changes?
  Response: Management: CVOW has bipartisan support at all levels; they expect continued support and do not see the election as a credible threat to the project.

• Question from Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division): Can you describe the nature of Charybdis' punchlist and timing to completion?
  Response: Management: Two primary issues—electrical component conditions and documentation; ~200 punchlist items identified, ~120 closed, expect vessel cleared to load/install turbines in November.

• Question from Nicholas Campanella (Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division): After addressing the punchlist, are there any other approvals required to begin turbine installation?
  Response: Management: No further approvals—punchlist completion is the remaining gating item to begin installations.

• Question from Nicholas Campanella (Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division): On the capital plan and balance sheet, how much capacity exists and will you still need equity in 2026/2027?
  Response: Management (CFO): Balance sheet healthy (FFO-to-debt ~15%); capital plan update due Q4; will use ATMs/hybrid equity as needed while preserving balance sheet conservatism and credit targets.

• Question from Steven Fleishman (Wolfe Research, LLC): Is the government shutdown or politics affecting Charybdis timing, or is it solely the punchlist?
  Response: Management: Solely the punchlist; no impact from government shutdown or politics.

• Question from Steven Fleishman (Wolfe Research, LLC): What should we expect for turbine installation cadence once you start?
  Response: Management: Expect a slower start for the first turbines, then a steady ramp-up to a regular cadence.

• Question from Steven Fleishman (Wolfe Research, LLC): How should we treat potential PJM open-window wins—are they already in the plan or additive?
  Response: Management (CFO): Forward plan is conservative; PJM wins would be additive upside; transmission run-rate modeled ~ $2.5B/year.

• Question from Steven Fleishman (Wolfe Research, LLC): Why was the SMR nuclear timing delayed in the IRP?
  Response: Management: Delay driven by financing, technology and integration with other planned builds; not to be over-read as a substantive change now.

• Question from Paul Zimbardo (Jefferies LLC, Research Division): If a few final CVOW turbines slip into 2027, are there supply chain constraints or meaningful financial impacts?
  Response: Management: No supply-chain or labor constraints; slipping a small number of turbines would have immaterial financial impact.

• Question from Paul Zimbardo (Jefferies LLC, Research Division): You've faced weather headwinds YTD but still expect at/above midpoint—what are the positive offsets?
  Response: Management (CFO): Primary offsets are stronger sales—data center ramp and higher residential usage—plus rider true-ups; weather is roughly a $0.02 headwind YTD.

• Question from Carly Davenport (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): Timing and cadence for the ~9.8 GW under ESAs—when do they come in-service?
  Response: Management: From delivery-point request to meters typically ~4–7 years; energization dates for contracted requests stretch through 2031 and ESAs ramp usage over time.

• Question from Carly Davenport (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): If CVOW costs through end‑2026 exceed $11.3B, will Stonepeak continue to contribute incremental capital and how confident are you?
  Response: Management (CFO): Under the agreement, costs between $11.3B–$11.8B are shared ~2/3 Dominion and ~1/3 Stonepeak; that sharing is assumed in the plan.

• Question from Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division): Inter-array cable fabrication seemed slower quarter-over-quarter—any concern?
  Response: Management: Production is non-linear but manufacturing and installation are on track; no concern.

• Question from Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division): What federal actions would materially change the timeline for nuclear deployment?
  Response: Management: Backstops for catastrophic cost-overrun and first‑of‑a‑kind risk and financing support would be needed to accelerate new nuclear.

• Question from Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division): Given equipment queues (transformers, CCGT equipment), how constrained is the supply chain for connecting data centers?
  Response: Management: Supply constraints exist industry-wide, but Dominion is advantaged by scale and supplier relationships and aligned IRP timelines with supply availability.

• Question from Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division): If some CVOW turbines slip into 2027, would that affect 2026 guidance?
  Response: Management (CFO): Any modest slips are de‑minimis to 2026 guidance; the plan was built conservatively to absorb such timing variance.

• Question from Anthony Crowdell (Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division): What generation cadence should investors expect over the next few years?
  Response: Management: Refer to the IRP; examples include 2.6 GW offshore by end of next year, ~1 GW solar per year, Chesterfield CCGT ~1 GW in 2029.

• Question from Anthony Crowdell (Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division): Will you issue an 8‑K or press release when Charybdis is cleared to begin installation?
  Response: Management: No 8‑K expected; vessel movement will be observable on public vessel‑tracking sites.

Contradiction Point 1

Charybdis Timing and Installation Confidence

It directly impacts expectations regarding the offshore wind project timeline, which is crucial for project milestones and financial planning.

What is the nature of the punch list for Charybdis, and when will quality assurance items be completed? - Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC)

2025Q3: Charybdis has a punch list of about 200 items, with 120 already completed. The team is confident in resolving the remaining items by November, allowing Charybdis to begin operation. - Robert Blue(CEO)

Can turbine installation operate 24/7? What is your overall confidence level? - Nicholas Joseph Campanella (Barclays)

2025Q2: Confidence in the schedule is high. No time restrictions for turbine installation. The derisking with Charybdis installation will ensure schedule compliance. - Robert M. Blue(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

PJM Capacity Cost Update and Regulatory Timeline

It involves changes in regulatory timelines and potential cost impacts, which are critical for financial forecasting and strategic planning.

Will Stonepeak provide additional capital to CVOW if costs exceed $11.3 billion? - Carly Davenport (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q3: PJM is working through extensive tasks, and there's no regulatory deadline. The delay shouldn't result in major cost changes like in February. - Robert Blue(CEO)

What is the reason for the PJM delay regarding the cost update for network upgrades? Is there a deadline for the update? - Carly S. Davenport (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q2: PJM is working through extensive tasks, and there's no regulatory deadline. The delay shouldn't result in major cost changes like in February. - Robert M. Blue(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Support for CVOW Project

It involves differing statements regarding political support for a critical project, impacting potential risks and regulatory challenges.

How should we account for CVOW risk if there's a party flip in the gubernatorial election? Is there a risk the Trump administration will block the project? - Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: Every statewide candidate supports CVOW, reflecting bipartisan support, which is consistent with support at federal, state, and local government levels. - Robert Blue(CEO)

Have electric topics, including CVOW, been discussed on either side of the political spectrum? - Steve Fleishman (Wolfe Research)

2025Q1: No, there has not been any discussion of CVOW or wind in the gubernatorial race thus far. - Robert Blue(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

CVOW Project Status and Risks

It involves differing statements about the status and risks associated with the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project, which is a strategic initiative for Dominion Energy.

How do we account for risks to the CVOW project from a party shift via gubernatorial elections? How likely is it that the Trump administration would block the project? - Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: CVOW is at 63% completion. We are on or ahead of schedule. The Charybdis ship has a punch list of about 200 items. We've completed 120, and we're confident we will get through the punch list by November. So we will start operation of the Charybdis right at the end of this year. - Robert Blue(CEO)

What remains variable in the CVOW project? How would supplier delivery delays impact the schedule? How will standby costs be recovered, and would suppliers cover them? Are there updates on incremental wind projects considering CVOW experience and D.C. policy/tariff challenges? - Shar Pourreza (Guggenheim Partners)

2024Q4: CVOW is 50% complete, on schedule, and on budget. Permits, materials, and contracts are in place. Fabrication and installation are proceeding smoothly. All contracted equipment is on track. Risks are decreasing as fabrication progresses. - Diane Leopold(COO)

Contradiction Point 5

Monopile Installation Pace

It involves differing statements regarding the installation pace of monopiles, which impacts project timing and progress.

After completing the punch list, are additional approvals required for turbine installation in the offshore wind supply chain? - Nicholas Campanella (Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: The first few turbines will be installed at a slower pace, similar to the beginning of monopile installations, which will then pick up speed. - Robert Blue(CEO)

Has the tariff backdrop impacted your suppliers' ability to deliver turbines on schedule? - Nick Campanella (Barclays)

2025Q1: Today is the beginning of monopile installation season, and we're starting today. Last season we hit a pace of about 25 a month, which is a pace we ought to be able to continue. - Robert Blue(CEO)