DOLOTRY Market Overview: Dolomite/Turkish Lira

• Price declined 16.1% over 24 hours, ending near 7.15
• Momentum weakened as RSI fell into oversold territory
• Volatility increased mid-session, but volume failed to confirm
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the final leg down
• 15-minute chart shows bearish engulfing and long lower wicks

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 7.141 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 7.15 on 2025-09-13 at the same time, with a high of 7.299 and low of 6.91. Total volume reached 24.46 million units, and notional turnover amounted to $175.5 million over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish trend with key resistance at 7.251 and support at 7.15. The price action showed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks, especially during the sharp decline in the early morning hours. A long green candle at 7.299 was followed by a sharp bearish reversal, signaling a shift in sentiment. The price tested the 7.226 level twice without breaking it, forming a potential resistance-turned-support zone.

Bearish Engulfing and Long Lower Wicks

Between 02:45 ET and 03:15 ET, DOLOTRY printed several bearish engulfing candles and long lower wicks that signaled exhaustion in the bulls. The price then broke below 7.16, triggering further bearish momentum. A doji appeared at 05:15 ET, indicating indecision at the lower end of the range, but it was quickly followed by a breakdown.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has been below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages for the majority of the period, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period MAs have crossed below the 200-period MA, forming a bearish triple crossover. This suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend, though a strong close above 7.251 could rekindle bullish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 01:45 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. The histogram showed increasing bearish momentum as the price fell from 7.299 to 7.15. RSI dropped into oversold territory around 09:45 ET and remained there, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, without a strong follow-through in volume, any rebound could be short-lived.

Momentum Divergence

RSI bottomed around 26, and price made a new low at 6.91, suggesting a bearish divergence. This typically indicates that the downtrend may persist despite the overbought condition. Traders should watch for a break above 7.226 to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted around 02:30 ET as the price traded in a tight range near 7.149. This was followed by a sharp move below the lower band, indicating a breakout to the downside. The price spent much of the session below the 20-period Bollinger Band lower band, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The bands have since widened again, suggesting increased volatility ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff between 04:45 ET and 06:00 ET, with a peak of 985,883 units. Notional turnover reached a high of $6.97 million during this period, confirming the move lower. However, volume failed to confirm the final leg down as the price approached 6.91, suggesting weakening bearish conviction. The divergence between price and volume raises the possibility of a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 6.91 to 7.299, the 38.2% retracement level sits at 7.168 and the 61.8% at 7.194. These levels could provide support for a short-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement is at 7.15 and the 61.8% at 7.226, suggesting potential resistance if buyers re-enter the market.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern forming near a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low. A short entry could be triggered when price breaks below the 15-minute 50-period MA after a bearish divergence in the RSI. The strategy could be further refined by incorporating volume confirmation and Bollinger Band breakout signals to filter out false signals.