DOLOTRY Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• Price surged over 5% after a sharp 15-minute breakout above 5.00 before consolidating.• High volatility evident with intraday range of ~10.3% and Bollinger Band expansion.• Volume spiked mid-session, confirming strength, but diverged slightly during late-night pullback.• RSI and MACD suggest momentum waning, indicating potential near-term pullback.• Key Fibonacci retracement levels at 4.75 and 4.62 may offer support in the near term.

Dolomite/Turkish Lira (DOLOTRY) opened at 4.559 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 5.007, and closed at 4.663 as of 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour price range was 4.519–5.007, with a total volume of 10,138,101.5 and notional turnover of 46,268,946.2 (DOLOTRY × Turkish Lira).

Structure & Formations

DOLOTRY showed a sharp bullish breakout with a candle forming a strong reversal pattern after hitting 5.00, followed by a consolidation phase into a bearish descending triangle. A long lower wick in the 19:00–19:15 ET candle suggests rejection at higher levels. Key resistance appears at 4.96 and 5.03, while support is forming at 4.75 and 4.62 levels. A doji formed at 03:45 ET, indicating indecision and a potential reversal point.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the 20- and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish fashion early on, with the 50-line rising into alignment with price. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at ~4.69, while the 100- and 200-period lines hover around 4.65 and 4.62 respectively. Price closed just above the 50-day MA, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines diverged slightly after the mid-session rally, with the histogram narrowing as price consolidated. RSI peaked at ~63 during the rally and has since pulled back to ~54, indicating a return toward neutral territory. While not overbought, RSI remains above 50, suggesting continued buying pressure but with diminishing momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Band width expanded significantly during the early breakout, with price peaking just above the upper band. Price has since retraced into the middle band, indicating a potential consolidation phase. A re-test of the upper band is likely if volume picks up again. Conversely, a drop below the middle band would signal renewed bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred during the 16:45–17:00 ET window, with 1,689,919.9 volume traded during a 5.00–5.007 rally. This was confirmed by a corresponding increase in turnover, showing strong conviction. Later in the night, volume and turnover diverged as price dipped below 4.80, suggesting weak follow-through. Notable divergence appeared after 03:00 ET when price fell but volume remained low.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (4.78–5.007), key retracement levels are at 4.96 (38.2%), 4.89 (50%), and 4.83 (61.8%). Price has tested the 61.8% level multiple times and may find support here. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent high (~4.90) lies at 4.75, aligning with a key support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI crossing below 55 and price dropping below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss placed just above the 50% level. This would target a reversal into consolidation and a potential re-test of the 50-period MA. Given the current structure and volume profile, this strategy appears to align with observed volatility and risk-reward balance. A 1%–2% stop is prudent to manage drawdowns during high-volatility periods.