Dollar Tree Shares Jump 4.00% as Bulls Target Key $100 Resistance Level

Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares surged 4.00% in the most recent session, closing at $99 and challenging the psychological $100 resistance level. This advance recovered most of the losses from the previous session, reflecting renewed buying interest.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns exhibit volatility. The 9.08% surge on June 5th formed a strong bullish candle, but was immediately followed by a bearish engulfing pattern on June 6th, signaling potential exhaustion. The current session’s robust green candle, closing near its high of $99.55, suggests bullish conviction if follow-through emerges. Key support sits near $95.69 (today’s low and recent reaction area). Resistance is evident at $100 (psychological level) and more critically at $101.17 (June 5th high), marking the YTD peak. Failure to breach $100 decisively could trigger retracement.
Moving Average Theory
The price exhibits conflicting signals across moving averages. Crucially, the 50-day MA (approx. $90.50, calculated) crossed above the 200-day MA (approx. $81.40) in early June, forming a 'Golden Cross' - a classic long-term bullish signal. However, the current price action near $99 remains below the flattening 100-day MA (approx. $92.00), acting as a magnet. Short-term momentum is positive above the rising 50-day MA, yet persistent rejection near $100 prevents a clean bullish breakout. Sustained trade above the 100-day MA is needed to confirm intermediate-term bullish control.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9 timeframe) crossed above its signal line during the early June surge and remains in positive territory, albeit with slightly waning momentum histograms over the past few sessions. This suggests the dominant uptrend persists, though buyers may be tiring. The KDJ oscillator (particularly the %K and %D lines) is currently hovering in overbought territory (above 80), indicating potential near-term exhaustion after the sharp rally from the May lows near $63. However, sustained overbought readings in a strong trend are not unusual. Divergence isn’t pronounced yet, but traders should monitor for any bearish crossovers or failure to make new highs on the next push.
Bollinger Bands
Price is trading near the upper Bollinger Band ($98.50, calculated), reflecting heightened short-term upward momentum. Volatility, as measured by band width, expanded significantly during the June 4th-5th volatility spike but has since contracted slightly while remaining relatively wide. Trading near the upper band implies strength, but also increases the risk of a short-term pullback towards the 20-period moving average (the middle band, approx. $94.00), which aligns closely with the $95 support zone. Contraction would signal a potential period of consolidation before the next directional move.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume provides critical context for recent moves. The massive surge on June 5th (over 15.5M shares, a 10x+ increase from preceding quiet sessions) validated the bullish gap and breakout. However, volume has faded considerably during subsequent sessions, including the latest 4% gain (3.48M shares). This divergence suggests the rally may lack the broad participation needed for sustained progress beyond $100 without renewed, significant volume inflow. The high-volume decline on June 4th remains a reminder of latent selling pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approx. 62) has retreated slightly from overbought readings above 70 seen during the June peak but remains in neutral territory, hovering just below bullish momentum levels (above 60). It suggests the current move still has room to run before becoming technically stretched again. While not flashing overbought warning signals currently, it offers no immediate oversold condition for potential buyers either. It aligns with other indicators showing moderate bullish momentum rather than extreme readings.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major downtrend from the August 2024 high (~$110) to the September 2024 low (~$60) is instructive. The price has significantly breached the key 50% retracement level (~$85). The most recent strong resistance aligns with the 61.8% retracement level at approximately $101.20 – reinforcing the significance of the $100-$101 zone highlighted by swing highs. This confluence (psychological $100, YTD peak at $101.17, 61.8% Fib) creates a formidable resistance barrier. Conversely, the 38.2% retracement level (~$78.80) now serves as major downside support below the recent consolidation zone.
Conclusion
Dollar Tree exhibits strong underlying technicals signaled by the bullish Golden Cross, sustained position above key MAs, and break above the 50% Fib. The challenge lies overhead at the $100-$101 confluence zone, emphasized by resistance rejections and weakening volume conviction on recent advances. While the MACD supports the uptrend and RSI allows for more upside, the proximity to strong Fib/price resistance, elevated KDJ readings, and lack of volume confirmation on the latest push suggest caution. A high-volume breakout above $101.17 would signal renewed bullish strength targeting new highs. Conversely, failure here increases the probability of a consolidation/pullback towards primary support near $95-$94 (recent lows, Middle Bollinger Band, 100-Day MA). Traders should watch volume confirmation on any directional break.