Dollar Tree Rises 3.46% To Extend 4-Day 6.34% Rally As Technicals Turn Bullish

Dollar Tree (DLTR) concluded its latest session at $108.37, marking a 3.46% gain and extending its winning streak to four consecutive days, cumulatively rising 6.34%. This upward momentum sets the stage for our technical evaluation of the stock’s trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions display a bullish pattern, with four consecutive white candles closing near daily highs, indicating sustained buying pressure. The July 7th hammer candle at $100.58 established immediate support, validated by subsequent bounces. Resistance is observed near $110, aligning with the June 5th peak of $97.45 (adjusted for the current uptrend) and the psychologically significant $110 level. A close above $110 would signal breakout potential, while failure to hold $105 support may trigger profit-taking.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($92.80) crossed above the 100-day ($87.50) and 200-day ($82.10) averages in Q2 2025, confirming a long-term bullish structure. Current price action trades comfortably above all three MAs, with the 50-day acting as dynamic support. The ascending alignment (50 > 100 > 200) reinforces the primary uptrend. Recent consolidation above the 100-day MA ($96) demonstrates robust trend integrity.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover in early July, with the histogram expanding positively — indicative of accelerating upward momentum. KDJ’s %K (86) and %D (79) reflect overbought territory, though divergence remains absent. While KDJ warns of short-term exhaustion risk, MACD’s strength suggests pullbacks may be buying opportunities unless KDJ forms a bearish crossover.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply during June’s $88–$105 consolidation, culminating in a July expansion breakout above the upper band ($107). Price currently hugs the upper band, signaling strong directional bias. The 20-day SMA ($102) now serves as trailing support. Sustained trading above the upper band implies overextension, potentially inviting mean-reversion toward $105 without bearish confirmation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 119% on the June 5th rally (9.08% gain), validating the breakout from consolidation. Recent advances display modest volume growth, lacking the climactic spikes typical of exhaustion moves. The absence of volume divergence during the 4-day rally supports continuation potential. Low-volume pullbacks to $100–$102 would confirm healthy profit absorption.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
14-day RSI (68) approaches overbought territory but remains below the 70 threshold. The indicator’s higher lows since April contrast with June’s price correction, forming a bullish divergence that preceded the current rally. While not yet overbought, proximity to 70 warrants vigilance for reversal signals. RSI sustainability above 60 may signal persistent bullish control.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the April low ($61.87) and July peak ($108.95): The 61.8% retracement ($91.50) anchored May–June consolidation. Recent price action cleared the 76.4% level ($103.20), now acting as support. Confluence exists between this level and the July 3rd low ($101.06), strengthening $101–$103 as a major support zone. Upside targets include the 100% extension at $114.
Confluence & Divergence Notes
Strong confluence appears at $102–$105, combining Fib support, the 100-day MA, and previous resistance turns support. KDJ’s overbought reading presents a mild divergence against MACD’s bullish momentum, though neither shows bearish crossovers. Volume’s confirmation of price highs mitigates reversal concerns. A break below $101 would invalidate the bullish structure, while consolidation above $105 suggests accumulation before testing $114.
Probabilistic Summary: The technical landscape favors bullish continuation, supported by trend confirmation across moving averages and momentum indicators. Short-term overbought signals from KDJ and RSI warrant caution but lack corroborating reversal patterns. Key support at $101–$105 should be monitored for institutional absorption, with $110–$114 acting as the next resistance zone.