Dollar Tree Plunges 8.37% to $102.03 on Heavy Volume as Technical Support Crumbles

Dollar Tree (DLTR) experienced a significant decline of 8.37% on the most recent trading day (2025-09-03), closing at $102.03 on heightened volume of 15.75 million shares. This sell-off breached several technical thresholds, warranting a multi-indicator assessment.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action shows a decisive bearish breakout. The 2025-09-03 session formed a long red candle (intraday low: $98, close: $102.03) that sliced below the $104–$108 psychological support zone established in early July. This follows a failed recovery attempt on 2025-09-02 (close: $111.35), which now marks immediate resistance. The breakdown invalidates the prior consolidation range ($108–$116) and exposes the critical June swing low near $94.81. A confirmed close below $100 would reinforce bearish control.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (≈$110) and 100-day moving average (≈$105) both turned downward after the sell-off, with the price closing decisively below both. While the 200-day moving average (≈$95) remains ascending and below current prices, the slope is flattening. The 50-day/100-day bearish crossover in development confirms short-term deterioration. Sustained trade below the 200-day MA would signal a long-term trend reversal, though this support level has historically held during pullbacks.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram is accelerating negative, with both the MACD line and signal line in bearish territory after recent crosses below zero. This momentum decay aligns with the KDJ indicators: K-value (20–25) and D-value (30–35) have plunged from overbought levels (>80) two weeks prior. While not yet oversold (typically <20), the sharp descent suggests continued downward pressure. Any bullish divergence would require a reversal confirmation above the signal line for MACD and KDJ crossovers.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident as the bands widened during the breakdown, with the price touching the lower band ($98). This band breach, combined with the highest volume since early June, signals conviction behind the move. However, the absence of a close below the lower band suggests potential interim support near $98–$100. A contraction back inside the bands would be necessary to stabilize the trend, while persistent lower-band tagging may foreshadow further downside toward $95.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 8.37% decline occurred on the highest volume in three months (15.75M shares), validating bearish momentum. This volume spike exceeded the average by 200% and dwarfed the preceding up-day volume (5.51M shares on 2025-09-02), indicating capitulation. Such distribution without subsequent buying pressure suggests weak demand at current levels. Any recovery attempt would require volume confirmation to establish credibility.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (≈28) has entered oversold territory, down sharply from neutral levels (55–60) earlier in August. While this warns of potential near-term exhaustion, similar RSI plunges in June 2025 preceded only temporary bounces before new lows. Traders should note that oversold readings can persist during strong downtrends. A recovery above 30 and eventual bullish divergence would be needed to signal sustainable upside momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Measuring from the June 13 low ($94.81) to the August 8 high ($118.06), key retracement levels include the 38.2% ($109.18), 50% ($106.44), and 61.8% ($103.69) marks. The price has sliced through the 61.8% level with conviction, indicating a deeper correction toward the 78.6% retracement ($99.27) or even the June low ($94.81). The breach below $103.69 shifts focus to the $100 psychological threshold as the next support, with any rally now facing resistance at the 50% level ($106.44).
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence is observed at $98–$100, where Bollinger Band support, the 78.6% Fibonacci level, and the 200-day MA create a pivotal zone. Conversely, a notable divergence exists between momentum oscillators and price action: while RSI and KDJ show oversold conditions, the lack of bullish MACD or volume signals undermines reversal potential. This tension suggests that breaches below $98 could trigger accelerated selling, whereas a rebound above $106 could attract short covering.