Dollar General Surges 13% on Earnings Beat and Influx of Affluent Shoppers

Summary
• Dollar General (DG) rockets 13.14% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $124.45.
• Q3 revenue jumps 4.6% to $10.65B, with EPS of $1.28 smashing estimates by 39.13%.
• Sector-wide shift: Higher-income households now drive 60% of new customer traffic at discount retailers.

Dollar General’s stock has erupted in a 13.14% intraday surge, fueled by a blockbuster Q3 earnings report and a broader economic trend of affluent shoppers flocking to discount stores. The stock’s meteoric rise—from a morning open of $115.75 to a 52-week high—reflects both company-specific outperformance and a sector-wide recalibration as consumer spending splits along income lines.

Earnings Beat and Strategic Expansion Fuel Bullish Momentum
Dollar General’s 13.14% surge stems from a combination of a 4.6% revenue increase to $10.65 billion and a 44% net profit jump to $282.7 million in Q3. The company’s same-store sales growth of 2.5%—driven by 196 new store openings and disproportionate growth from higher-income households—exceeded expectations. CEO Todd Vasos highlighted a “K-shaped economy” where affluent consumers are trading up to Dollar General’s value proposition, while middle- and lower-income shoppers remain price-sensitive. The stock’s breakout also aligns with a broader sector trend, as rivals like Dollar Tree and Five Below reported similar dynamics.

Discount Retailers Rally as Affluent Shoppers Redefine Consumer Behavior
The discount retail sector is experiencing a seismic shift as higher-income households—earning over $100,000—now account for 60% of new customer traffic at Dollar Tree and similar growth at Dollar General. Dollar Tree (DLTR), the sector’s leader, surged 2.5% intraday after reporting 4.2% same-store sales growth and a 4.2% increase in customer traffic from affluent shoppers. Meanwhile, Five Below (FIVE) also outperformed, with comparable sales rising 14%. The sector’s collective strength underscores a broader economic bifurcation, where wealthier consumers are increasingly prioritizing value over brand, while middle- and lower-income shoppers remain constrained by inflation and stagnant wages.

Options Playbook: Leverage Bullish Momentum with Gamma-Driven Calls
• MACD: 1.908 (above signal line 0.939), RSI: 67.77 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band ($124.45).
• 200-day MA: $100.41 (well below current price), 30-day MA: $102.83 (bullish divergence).

Dollar General’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with the stock trading at its 52-week high and MACD crossing above the signal line. The RSI at 67.77 suggests no immediate overbought conditions, while the 200-day MA lags far below the current price, indicating a potential re-rating. Two options stand out for aggressive bulls:

• DG20251212C121: Call option with strike price $121, expiring Dec 12. Key stats: IV: 19.80% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 30.78%, Delta: 0.838 (high sensitivity), Theta: -0.259 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.063 (strong price sensitivity). Turnover: 59,599. This contract offers a 30.78% leverage ratio and high gamma, making it ideal for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $130.54).
• DG20251212C122: Call option with strike price $122, expiring Dec 12. Key stats: IV: 17.10% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 40.21%, Delta: 0.798 (high sensitivity), Theta: -0.252 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.084 (exceptional price sensitivity). Turnover: 60,602. This contract’s 40.21% leverage ratio and 0.084 gamma make it a top pick for a 5% upside (targeting $130.54).

Payoff Estimation: For a 5% upside (ST = $130.54), DG20251212C121 yields $9.54 per contract, while DG20251212C122 yields $8.54. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and moderate IV, positioning them to capitalize on continued momentum. Aggressive bulls should consider DG20251212C122 into a breakout above $124.45.

Backtest Dollar General Stock Performance
After programmatically scanning Dollar General (ticker DG) from 1 Jan 2022 through today for any session in which (high price ÷ prior-day close − 1) ≥ 13 %no qualifying dates were found. Because the event list is empty, the event-study back-test cannot be run—there are simply no historical observations that meet the ≥ 13 % intraday-surge criterion in the requested period, so the engine returned an error when it tried to calculate post-event statistics.What this means for you • DG has not delivered a single 13 % or greater spike (from previous close to same-day high) since the start of 2022. • With zero qualifying events, a performance study cannot be constructed—the sample size is literally nil. Options going forward 1. Lower the surge threshold (e.g., 8 % or 10 %) to capture more events and run a meaningful study. 2. Switch from intraday high-relative performance to close-to-close daily jumps (e.g., +10 % day-over-day) if that better suits your objective. 3. Explore a broader universe (e.g., hard-line retailers or small-cap discretionary names) if you specifically need ≥ 13 % intraday events for comparison.Let me know how you’d like to proceed—happy to rerun the scan with a different threshold or modify the metric.

Seize the Bullish Wave: DG’s 52-Week High is Just the Beginning
Dollar General’s 13.14% surge is not a flash in the pan but a structural shift driven by earnings outperformance and a re-rating of the discount retail sector. The stock’s technicals—bullish MACD, strong RSI, and a 52-week high—signal a potential continuation of the rally. Sector leader Dollar Tree (DLTR) is up 2.5% intraday, reinforcing the broader trend. Investors should watch for a breakout above $124.45 or a pullback to the 30-day MA at $104.11. For those seeking leverage, DG20251212C122 offers a high-gamma, high-leverage play on the next leg higher. The key takeaway: Dollar General is rewriting its narrative, and the bulls are in control.