Dollar General Stalls Near 102.20 Resistance Amid Weak Volume Signals

Dollar General (DG) concluded its latest session with a marginal decline of 0.08%, settling at $97.17 after trading between $96.36 and $98.19. The analysis below synthesizes technical indicators based on the one-year dataset.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal indecision near the $97–$98 zone, with multiple doji-like formations (e.g., 2025-05-29 and 2025-05-30) signaling equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A critical support level emerges near $92.50, anchored by the May 19th bullish engulfing pattern’s low, while resistance converges at $102.20, aligning with the May 20th swing high. The failure to breach $102.20 after two retests in May suggests persistent selling pressure at this barrier.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) at $93.80 and 100-day MA at $89.50 slope upward, reinforcing a nascent intermediate bullish trend. Notably, the price remains above both, reflecting constructive momentum. However, the flattish 200-day MA near $95.30 tempers optimism, indicating unresolved long-term trend direction. A sustained hold above the 50-day MA would strengthen the near-term bullish case, whereas slippage below $93.80 may trigger accelerated selling.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover in late May but has since narrowed, hinting at weakening upward momentum. KDJ’s %K (76) and %D (68) reside in overbought territory, though without a decisive bearish cross, suggesting consolidation may precede a pullback. Divergence is evident as KDJ retreats from overbought levels while prices plateau—a potential early reversal signal that warrants caution.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contracted significantly in late May, with the bands tightening around $96–$98 (20-day SMA: $97.10). This compression culminated in a minor breakout toward $98.19 on June 2nd, though closure near the middle band ($97.17) reflects unconvincing follow-through. A decisive close above the upper band ($98.60) would confirm bullish momentum, while rejection here could reinforce the resistance zone.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged during the May 15th–20th rally (6.8M shares vs. 30-day avg ~3.5M), validating the breakout from the $90–$93 base. However, recent advances lack commensurate volume, with June 2nd’s uptick registering below-average participation. This divergence implies limited conviction in the current rebound, raising sustainability concerns if volume remains subdued.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 62 resides in neutral territory but approaches overbought thresholds. While not yet signaling exhaustion, its retreat from a May 20th peak of 72 aligns with slowing upside momentum. Historical reactions near RSI 65 (e.g., April price rejections) highlight this as a resistance zone. Traders should note that RSI values between 50–70 during uptrends may persist, reducing reliability as a standalone reversal indicator.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the March–May rally (swing low: $71.89 on March 3rd; swing high: $102.20 on May 20th), key retracement supports emerge at $92.50 (38.2%) and $87.00 (61.8%). The May 28th selloff found buyers near the 38.2% level ($92.50), establishing it as a critical floor. A breach below $92.50 could target $87.00, whereas a bounce from this zone may reignite the uptrend toward $102.20.
Confluence Points & Divergences
Confluence supports the $92.50–$93.00 region, where the 38.2% Fibonacci level, May 19th swing low, and 50-day MA converge. A breakdown here would align with KDJ’s overbought divergence and weak volume on rallies. Conversely, resistance at $102.20 benefits from Bollinger Band upper-limit alignment and the absence of high-volume breakout attempts. The most salient divergence lies in volume: diminished participation during recent tests of $98–$102 undermines bullish momentum despite otherwise constructive MAs and MACD. These mixed signals advocate for probabilistic trade planning—monitoring the $92.50–$93.00 support for bearish invalidation or $102.20 breakout for trend confirmation.