Dollar General Soars as Top Performer in Trump’s First 100 Days: A Tale of Tariffs, Turnarounds, and Trade-Down Shoppers

Dollar General (DG) has emerged as one of the standout performers during Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, delivering a 19.12% year-to-date (YTD) gain as of April 30, 2025. This outperformance—driven by tariff resilience, operational turnaround efforts, and defensive investor sentiment—positions the discount retailer as a beneficiary of both Trump’s economic policies and broader macroeconomic trends.

Stock Performance: A Steep Climb from January to April

Dollar General’s stock began 2025 at $74.56 on January 2, 2025, and surged to $93.69 by April 30—a +20.09% increase over the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency. Key milestones include:
- January: The stock dipped slightly to $72.03 by month-end amid post-holiday volatility but stabilized after a $0.59 dividend on January 7.
- February–March: Prices fluctuated between $71 and $86, with a notable rebound in March to $87.37, fueled by improved investor sentiment.
- April: The stock hit a 2025 high of $96.79 on April 22, closing April at $93.69—a +5.1% gain compared to the S&P 500’s ~-2% decline.

Why Dollar General Thrived Under Trump’s Early Policies

1. Low Tariff Exposure Shields Profit Margins
   Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, targeting imports from China and Mexico, disproportionately impacted retailers reliant on foreign goods. Dollar General, however, derives only 4% of its purchases from imports, with 82% of sales coming from consumables (e.g., food, cleaning supplies). This insulates the company from trade-related inflation compared to competitors like Walmart or Dollar Tree, which source more discretionary items overseas.

2. Defensive Investing in a Volatile Market
   Investors rotated into consumer staples as economic uncertainty loomed. Dollar General’s core customer base—price-sensitive middle- and low-income households—remains resilient even in recessions. CEO Todd Vasos’ focus on operational efficiency (e.g., store optimization, supply chain streamlining) further bolstered confidence.

3. Dividend Discipline and Shareholder Returns
   The company’s $0.59 dividend in January and another in April reinforced its reputation as a reliable income stock. This contrasts with peers like Target, which cut dividends during the 2024 downturn.

Challenges Ahead: E-Commerce and SNAP Uncertainty

Despite its gains, Dollar General faces hurdles:
- Walmart’s Digital Dominance: Walmart+ and Amazon’s Prime service continue to erode foot traffic, though Dollar General’s rural store footprint offers a natural defense.
- SNAP Benefit Concerns: Over 20% of Dollar General’s sales rely on SNAP (food stamp) recipients. Potential cuts to these benefits under Trump’s fiscal policies could strain its core demographic.

Long-Term Context: A Work in Progress

While 2025’s gains are impressive, the stock remains 65% below its all-time high of $248.27 (October 2022). Analysts caution that sustained growth hinges on Vasos’ ability to:
- Expand its digital platform (currently lagging peers).
- Maintain pricing power amid rising input costs.
- Capitalize on “trade-down” shoppers from higher-income brackets.

Conclusion: A Buy with Caution

Dollar General’s +19.12% YTD gain during Trump’s first 100 days underscores its strategic advantages in a tariff-heavy, inflationary environment. Its low import exposure, focus on consumables, and consistent dividend policy make it a compelling play for defensive investors. However, risks like e-commerce competition and policy uncertainty warrant caution.

Recommendation:
- Bull Case: If Dollar General can execute its operational turnaround and defend its market share, a rise to $120–$130 (pre-2022 highs) is plausible over 12–18 months.
- Bear Case: A SNAP benefit cut or further e-commerce encroachment could push the stock back toward its 2024 low of $66.

For now, Dollar General’s 2025 performance marks it as a winner in Trump’s early economic agenda—a testament to its ability to navigate both policy headwinds and shifting consumer behavior.

Data sources: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Company Filings, and S&P 500 Index Performance (2025).