Dollar General Jumps 3.12% to $114.99 Nearing Key Resistance After Multi-Year Recovery

Dollar General (DG) gained 3.12% in the most recent session, closing at $114.99 on significant volume, positioning it near a critical technical juncture after a substantial recovery from multi-year lows established in late 2024.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a decisive bullish candlestick closing near the session high ($115.01) on June 23rd, suggesting strong buying pressure after consolidating near the $111-$113 zone. This pattern near the $115 level indicates this price represents significant resistance, confirmed by the June 4th and June 10th highs around $114.73-$114.37. Strong support is evident near $110-$111, formed by the June 11th low ($110.892) and the June 3rd breakout close ($112.57), coinciding with the psychologically important $110 level. A key swing low support exists near $100, established through multiple tests in early June and late May. The sharp bullish engulfing pattern on June 3rd (+15.85% on huge volume) remains a major anchor point for bullish sentiment, defining the current uptrend's origin.
Moving Average Theory
The short-term 50-day Moving Average exhibits a positive slope, currently near $108, acting as dynamic support. Crucially, the 50-day MA has recently crossed above the long-term 200-day MA (near $95), forming a bullish 'Golden Cross' signal suggesting potential for a longer-term uptrend establishment. However, the price ($114.99) remains below the still-declining 100-day MA (near $98), introducing a note of intermediate-term caution. This positioning suggests the recovery trend is strengthening but still faces resistance confirmation overhead. Confluence exists near $111-$112 where the rising 50-day MA and the key $111 support level align.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line has just crossed above its signal line in positive territory, generating a fresh buy signal, though it remains at a relatively low level historically. The histogram shows increasing positive momentum. The KDJ indicator portrays a more overbought picture; the %K and %J lines are both above 80, solidly in overbought territory, while the %D line is crossing above 70. This suggests strong near-term momentum but also raises the probability of a pullback or consolidation due to stretched conditions. There's a mild divergence: while price made a new multi-month high ($115.01), the KDJ peaks are lower than their May-June highs, potentially signaling waning upside momentum relative to price.
Bollinger Bands
Price is currently testing the upper Bollinger Band (~$116 based on 20-period, 2 Std Dev calculation), confirming the resistance near $115. Bandwidth is relatively narrow, indicating subdued volatility compared to historical levels (especially the extreme volatility of the August 2024 crash and subsequent recovery). A sustained break above the upper band would be a strong bullish continuation signal. Conversely, a rejection from the upper band, combined with the KDJ overbought reading and proximity to $115 resistance, increases the likelihood of a near-term retreat towards the middle band (20-period MA ~$107.5), which also aligns with the 50-day MA.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume provides strong validation for the recovery trend. The massive volume surge (+15.85%) on June 3rd during the decisive breakout above $110 confirmed significant accumulation and a likely trend reversal point. Recent gains, including the 3.12% rise on June 23rd, occurred on above-average volume, supporting their sustainability. Conversely, pullbacks (like those on June 20th and June 18th) generally occurred on lower volume, suggesting a lack of strong distribution pressure. This volume profile strongly supports the ongoing bullish bias, indicating buyers are stepping in more aggressively than sellers during declines.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is currently near 64, positioned firmly in neutral territory and avoiding the overbought threshold (70). This indicates room for potential upside before technically overbought conditions are signaled, aligning with the MACD buy signal. While the KDJ shows overbought readings, the RSI divergence warning is more pertinent; RSI did not make a new high alongside the recent price high compared to May, exhibiting a mild bearish divergence. This reinforces the caution suggested by the KDJ and proximity to $115 resistance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the dominant trend move from the significant low ($84.03 on August 29, 2024) to the recent high ($115.01 on June 23, 2025) provides key levels. The 23.6% retracement sits near $107.90, the 38.2% near $103.40, and the crucial 50% midpoint retracement near $99.50. The 61.8% level is around $95.60. Current price action has decisively reclaimed the 61.8% level and is consolidating above the 50% level. The 38.2% level ($103.40) aligns closely with the rising 50-day MA and the Bollinger middle band, offering a strong confluence support zone in case of a pullback. The recent bounce from near the 50% level ($100 in May/early June) adds significance to $99.50-$100 as major support.
Concluding Synthesis
Dollar General exhibits significant technical strength following its recovery from August 2024 lows, supported by bullish moving average crosses, positive MACD, supportive volume, and the reclamation of key Fibonacci levels. However, the proximity to robust $115 resistance, combined with KDJ overbought conditions, a mild RSI divergence, and testing the upper Bollinger Band, suggests a heightened probability of a near-term consolidation or pullback before another significant advance attempt. Key support converges near $110-$111 (price support, rising 50-day MA, 38.2% Fib), offering a potential strategic entry zone on weakness. A decisive, high-volume close above $115 would signal a breakout, potentially targeting $120-$125, while a failure to hold $110 would likely trigger a deeper test towards the $103.40/$100 support levels.