Did the DOJ Actually Sell the Samourai Bitcoin?

The core event is a forfeiture of $6.367 million in Bitcoin fees from the co-founders of Samourai Wallet, a privacy tool used to launder over $237 million in criminal proceeds. The co-founders, sentenced in November 2025, paid this sum to satisfy a forfeiture order. The immediate regulatory question is whether the Department of Justice (DOJ) complied with Executive Order 14233, which mandates holding forfeited Bitcoin in the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

The critical facts are straightforward. On November 3, 2025, the Bitcoin was transferred to Coinbase Prime custody. The blockchain shows no on-chain evidence of a sale; the funds were swept internally within Coinbase's infrastructure and consolidated into its broader custody cluster. However, the zero balance at the original deposit address, combined with the DOJ's stated intent to liquidate, has led to claims that the assets were sold. The bottom line is that the on-chain record is silent on the final disposition, creating a compliance question that requires off-chain documentation to resolve.

This is a tactical event with limited core valuation impact. The $6.3 million represents a tiny fraction of the total Bitcoin supply and even a smaller portion of the DOJ's total crypto holdings. The real risk is a temporary mispricing due to uncertainty, not a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's scarcity or utility. The core thesis is that while the DOJ's handling creates a governance red flag, the asset size is too small to move the market's fundamental trajectory.

Decoding the On-Chain Data: Sale or Sweep?

The narrative of a federal Bitcoin sale hinges on a critical distinction: on-chain movement versus off-chain conversion. The evidence shows a standard custody operation, not a liquidation. On November 3, 2025, approximately 57.553 BTC was transferred from a Samourai-linked address to a Coinbase Prime deposit wallet (3Lz5U). This was the initial step of moving forfeited assets into a regulated custodial platform.

Further analysis reveals the funds were consolidated into the broader Coinbase Prime cluster, which includes thousands of addresses used for custody and settlement. The critical point is that the blockchain does not show the Bitcoin leaving Coinbase-controlled infrastructure. There is no on-chain evidence the funds moved to a non-Coinbase entity, fragmented into multiple outputs typical of trade execution, or flowed into known exchange settlement wallets. The absence of these patterns is itself a significant data point.

The bottom line is that on-chain data cannot confirm a sale. Bitcoin-to-USD conversion on platforms like Coinbase Prime occurs off-chain. Therefore, the blockchain cannot show whether proceeds were credited to the US Marshals Service or whether the Bitcoin was retained in custody. The transfer and internal sweep are confirmed facts. The liquidation, which would require off-chain documentation and settlement records, remains unproven by the public ledger.

The Tactical Setup: What the Market Should Watch

The uncertainty around the DOJ's Samourai Bitcoin forfeiture creates a clear tactical setup for crypto markets. The critical metrics to watch are the asset size relative to market cap, the policy signal of a potential breach, and the supply-side implication of holding. Together, they define a low-risk, high-signal event.

First, the mechanics of the asset size limit direct price impact. The $6.3 million in forfeiture represents a tiny fraction of the total Bitcoin supply and market capitalization. Even if sold, this amount is unlikely to move the broader market significantly. The real impact is not on price, but on perception and policy.

Second, the watchpoint is the confirmation of a discretionary breach of Executive Order 14233. The DOJ's transfer of the Bitcoin to a Coinbase Prime address, bypassing USMS custody, appears to violate the order's directive to hold forfeited Bitcoin in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Legal experts argue the liquidation was discretionary, with no applicable exceptions. A confirmed sale would signal a potential shift in DOJ crypto policy, moving from a reserve-holding stance to a more active monetization approach. This could unsettle holders who view the reserve as a long-term, non-dilutive holding.

Third, the lack of on-chain sale evidence suggests the DOJ may be holding the Bitcoin, removing a potential supply overhang. While the original address shows a zero balance, on-chain analysis indicates the funds were swept internally within Coinbase Prime custody, not sold. This consolidation within Coinbase-controlled infrastructure means the Bitcoin remains in a custodial "vault," not in circulation. The market should watch for any future on-chain movement that breaks this pattern.

The immediate market impact hinges on clarity. For now, the setup is one of low supply risk and high policy signal. The market should watch for official documentation confirming a sale or a formal transfer into the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Either outcome will provide the clarity needed to assess the DOJ's stance. Until then, the tactical play is to treat the forfeiture as a contained event with minimal direct price impact, but a significant signal for the regulatory regime governing seized crypto.

Catalysts and Takeaway: The Decision Points

The uncertainty over the Samourai Bitcoin's fate hinges on two clear signals. The first is official confirmation from the DOJ or US Marshals Service. Any statement acknowledging the sale would settle the compliance question definitively. Until then, the on-chain data shows only a standard internal sweep within Coinbase Prime custody, not a liquidation. The second, more direct signal is a future transfer of the Bitcoin from Coinbase Prime. If the funds move to an external entity, especially to an exchange settlement wallet, it would be a clear bearish catalyst indicating liquidation.

The tactical takeaway is straightforward. Until on-chain or official evidence confirms a sale, the Bitcoin remains a potential supply overhang. The strategic trade is to watch for the first clear signal of liquidation. That event, whether a transfer from Coinbase or an official admission, will be the catalyst that resolves the ambiguity and likely triggers a market reaction. For now, the position is one of waiting for the first definitive proof.