DOGS' Critical Resistance at $0.0000170 and the Path to a Breakout

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) token, colloquially known as "DOGS," has long been a poster child for the volatile memecoin sector. Yet, recent on-chain and technical developments suggest that the token is poised for a pivotal moment. The $0.0000170 resistance level—a psychological and technical threshold—has become a focal point for traders and investors. With SHIB's price action repeatedly testing this level and on-chain metrics signaling robust accumulation, the stage is set for a potential multi-week rally.

Technical Momentum: A Tug-of-War at $0.0000170

SHIB's price has oscillated near $0.0000170 for much of September 2025, with notable attempts to break through. On September 7, 2025, the token surged to $0.0000169, just shy of the resistance level, before retreating to $0.0000161. This pattern of "failed breakouts" has created a critical inflection point.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 44.40, indicating neutral territory but hinting at potential for a bounce. A sustained move above 60 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below 40 could signal further consolidation. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram, though bearish (-0.0000), shows weakening downward pressure, suggesting that selling interest may be waning.

The 50-day moving average has risen above the price, offering near-term resistance, while the 200-day average remains in decline. This divergence underscores a short-term bullish bias but highlights long-term uncertainty. For SHIB to break above $0.0000170, volume must surge above $10 million daily, and the RSI must close above 55.

On-Chain Buying Pressure: A Silent Accumulation Play

While technical indicators paint a mixed picture, on-chain data tells a different story. Over 3.477 trillion SHIB tokens were transferred in August 2025, with 400 billion moving into self-custody wallets. This shift from speculative trading to long-term holding is a hallmark of institutional confidence.

A single wallet now holds 41% of SHIB's supply, and a $39 million transfer from Coinbase Prime to a self-custody wallet in late August further signals strategic accumulation. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has diverged from the downward price trend, indicating that buying pressure is outpacing selling interest.

The token burn rate has also surged by 1,985%, erasing $5.2 billion in value since 2025. This deflationary mechanism, combined with whale-driven accumulation, is tightening SHIB's supply and creating a foundation for price appreciation.

The NVT Ratio: A Contradiction in Motion

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio remains subdued, reflecting weak price growth despite robust on-chain activity. While SHIB's transaction volume has spiked, its market cap has not kept pace, leaving the NVT ratio in undervalued territory. Analysts argue that this divergence could normalize as the token gains traction, particularly if the Realized Cap Impulse—a measure of realized value—flips to positive territory.

The Path to a Breakout: What to Watch

For SHIB to break above $0.0000170 and initiate a multi-week rally, three conditions must align:
1. RSI Confirmation: A sustained close above 60 to validate bullish momentum.
2. MACD Reversal: A positive turn in the MACD histogram to confirm a shift in trend.
3. Volume Surge: Daily trading volume exceeding $10 million to signal institutional participation.

Failure to meet these criteria could result in a retest of the $0.000014–$0.000015 support zone. However, the on-chain data suggests that even in a consolidation phase, SHIB's fundamentals are strengthening.

Investment Implications

The memecoin sector has historically been driven by sentiment and speculation, but SHIB's recent accumulation trends and deflationary mechanics suggest a shift toward structural value. Investors should treat the $0.0000170 level as a critical test of market confidence.

• Bullish Case: A successful breakout could propel SHIB toward $0.000020–$0.000025, with secondary resistance at $0.000030.
• Bearish Case: A breakdown below $0.000012 would signal renewed bearishness, though the on-chain data implies a floor at $0.000010.

For risk-tolerant investors, a small position in SHIB could be justified as a speculative play on the $0.0000170 breakout. However, it's crucial to monitor the RSI and MACD for confirmation and to set stop-loss orders below $0.000014.

Conclusion

Shiba Inu's journey to $0.0000170 is more than a technical milestone—it's a test of the memecoin sector's resilience. With on-chain buying pressure and deflationary mechanics creating a tailwind, the token has the potential to break free of its consolidation phase. While the path is fraught with volatility, the alignment of technical and on-chain signals suggests that SHIB is on the cusp of a defining moment. For those willing to navigate the risks, the rewards could be substantial.