DOGEUSDT Market Overview: Dogecoin/Tether

• Price declined to a 24-hour low of $0.24727, with bearish momentum increasing in the latter half.
• RSI reached oversold territory, while volume surged in the final hours.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed early before a sharp expansion downward.
• Key support levels identified around $0.24900 and $0.24700.
• No bullish reversal patterns confirmed, but bearish continuation patterns emerged late in the session.

At 12:00 ET on October 3, DOGEUSDT opened at $0.25934 and reached a high of $0.2651 before settling at a close of $0.24765 at 12:00 ET on October 4. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 730,382,271 DOGE and a notional turnover of $187.7 million.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern for DOGEUSDT over the past 24 hours reflects a strong bearish bias. A series of long-bodied bearish candles emerged, particularly between 17:00 and 18:00 ET, indicating aggressive selling pressure. The price failed to hold above the $0.26000 level, and a significant breakdown below the $0.25500 support was confirmed. The low of $0.24727 at 15:30 ET marks a potential short-term floor, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligning at this price.

A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 17:00 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. The session ended with a strong bearish momentum, as the price closed near the session low. No bullish reversal patterns were observed; however, a potential base formation is forming around the $0.24700 level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price is well below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at $0.2565, and the 20-period MA is at $0.2540. Both are trending lower.

On the daily chart, the price is below the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are also trending downward. The 50-period MA is at $0.2580, the 100-period at $0.2610, and the 200-period at $0.2635. This confirms a longer-term bearish trend, with the price showing no signs of reversing.

MACD & RSI

The 12:00 ET close saw the RSI at 28.3, well into oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound. However, the MACD line is negative and below the signal line, with a bearish divergence developing as price continues to fall. The histogram has been shrinking in the negative territory, indicating weakening bearish momentum.

Despite the bearish divergence, the RSI has not shown a strong bullish reversal yet. The price may test the $0.24700 level before any meaningful bounce. MACD is expected to remain bearish for the next 24 hours unless a sharp upward move occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Early in the session, the Bollinger Bands were relatively narrow, indicating low volatility. However, the sharp decline in price led to a significant expansion of the bands, with the price now sitting near the lower band. This suggests increased volatility and a continuation of the downtrend.

The price has remained within the lower half of the bands for most of the session, with the last candle closing near the lower band. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests that the price could potentially move further downward, possibly into the range between $0.24500 and $0.24700.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the final hours of the session, with the largest candle occurring at 15:30 ET. This candle had a volume of 28,815,074 DOGE and a turnover of approximately $7.4 million. This volume spike coincided with a breakdown below $0.25000, confirming the move.

The volume profile supports the bearish price action, with increasing volume observed as the price declined. The final candle showed the highest volume of the session, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. No price-volume divergence was observed, suggesting the trend may continue in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute move from the high of $0.2651 to the low of $0.24727, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.2547, and the 61.8% level is at $0.2507. These levels represent potential areas where the price could find temporary support or resistance.

On a daily basis, retracements from the broader recent move show $0.25000 as a key 61.8% level. The price currently appears to be approaching this area, and a bounce or breakdown from here could define the next phase of the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band expansion to identify potential trend continuations. The current session aligns well with this hypothesis, as the price broke out of a narrow band into a wide expansion, accompanied by bearish RSI divergence. A potential trade setup would involve entering a short position upon the breakdown of the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.2507, with a stop-loss above the 38.2% level at $0.2547.

This approach could have captured the downward move observed in the final hours of the session. Given the strong volume confirmation and bearish momentum, the strategy appears well-aligned with the current price action. If the price continues to consolidate near $0.24700, it may offer a high-probability entry for a short position with favorable risk-reward characteristics.