DOGEJPY Market Overview: Strong Rally Amid Divergence and Volatility

• DOGEJPY surged to ¥44.40 intraday before consolidating near ¥43.80, indicating strong bullish momentum.
• RSI crossed overbought territory, while MACD showed positive divergence, suggesting potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Bands widening, as volume spiked during key breakouts.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near ¥40.10, followed by a strong rally to ¥45.39, confirming short-term strength.
• Price remains above key 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing an uptrend bias for the next 24 hours.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at ¥39.07 on 2025-09-12 12:00 ET and surged to a 24-hour high of ¥45.39 before closing at ¥43.80 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair traded between ¥39.04 and ¥45.39, with a total volume of 11,894,724 units and a notional turnover of ¥496,573,888.30. This sharp rally was driven by a bullish engulfing pattern and a breakout above the 50-period SMA, but signs of overbought RSI and MACD divergence hint at short-term caution.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a strong bullish reversal, with price breaking above a key resistance level of ¥40.10 following a bullish engulfing pattern. Price action then extended to ¥45.39 before consolidating near ¥43.80. A potential descending triangle formation is visible in the upper range, with ¥43.0–43.5 acting as support and ¥44.5–45.0 as resistance. A bearish harami pattern emerged near ¥44.40, suggesting a possible short-term correction after the sharp advance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remains well above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, with the 50-period SMA acting as a dynamic support at ¥41.60. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at ¥38.50, with the 200-period SMA at ¥35.90. Price is now comfortably above all major moving averages, reinforcing a strong short-to-medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The RSI approached overbought territory (80), reaching a peak of 79.6 before retreating, signaling potential exhaustion of the current bullish move. MACD showed a positive divergence during the consolidation phase, with the histogram expanding on rising volume. While these indicators confirm strength, the overbought RSI suggests a short-term pullback could be imminent. A bearish crossover in the MACD could trigger a retest of ¥43.0–43.5.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price surged from ¥39.04 to ¥45.39, with the upper band widening to ¥44.50. Price currently sits near the middle band at ¥43.80, with the lower band at ¥42.40. The expansion of the bands indicates increased market participation and potential for further swings. A retest of the lower band could trigger short-term buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout phase, with the 15-minute candle at 2025-0913 093000 showing a high of ¥43.20 and volume of 494,237 units. Notional turnover spiked to ¥21,370,666.50 during this period, confirming strong conviction in the rally. However, volume has since declined during the consolidation phase, which could indicate a loss of momentum. A reacceleration in volume could confirm a breakout or breakdown from the current range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from ¥39.04 to ¥45.39, the 61.8% level sits at ¥42.95 and the 38.2% level at ¥44.05. Price has tested both levels, with a potential continuation of the rally expected if it reclaims ¥44.50. A breakdown below ¥42.95 would trigger a retest of ¥41.60 and ¥40.10, with bearish implications for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed patterns and indicators, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, with a stop-loss placed below the low of the engulfing candle. A target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the upper Bollinger Band. Alternatively, a short bias could be considered upon RSI overbought divergence and a bearish MACD crossover, with a stop-loss above the recent high. Given the volatility and liquidity observed in this 24-hour window, this strategy would likely benefit from a high time-frame filter and tight risk management.