DOGEJPY Market Overview: Mild Volatility and Fading Momentum

Summary
• DOGEJPY opened at ¥26.44, reaching ¥25.64 intraday before closing at ¥25.30.
• Volume surged to 4.77 million DOGE and turnover hit ¥122.6 million Yen.
• Momentum indicators show weakening bearish bias and potential for consolidation.
• Price is within Bollinger Bands, reflecting moderate volatility.
• Key support levels at ¥25.20 and resistance near ¥25.50 are critical for near-term direction.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at ¥26.44 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥25.30 on 2025-11-14 at the same time. Intraday highs hit ¥25.64, and lows fell to ¥24.68. Over 24 hours, trading volume totaled approximately 4.77 million DOGE, with a notional turnover of ¥122.6 million Yen. The price action reflects a bearish reversal but lacks decisive breakouts or confirmatory volume.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a descending broadening pattern with key support at ¥25.20 and resistance near ¥25.50. A doji formed on the 04:45 candle (¥24.68–25.03), signaling indecision. The prior 4-hour bearish engulfing pattern from ¥25.04 to ¥24.87 confirmed a short-term downturn.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA crossed bearishly, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA and 100-EMA are converging, suggesting a potential inflection point. The 200-EMA continues to act as a strong support at ¥25.10.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into negative territory after a 15-minute bearish signal, while the RSI is near 30, indicating a possible oversold condition. Divergence between price and RSI suggests bearish momentum is weakening.

Bollinger Bands

DOGEJPY remains within the Bollinger Band range, with volatility steady after a mid-night contraction from ¥25.4–25.56. The close of ¥25.30 sits slightly below the mid-band, indicating a neutral stance with no clear breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 4:45 AM ET with a candle printing 477,470 DOGE and ¥122.6 million Yen in turnover, confirming a key support test. Turnover remains above average, but divergence is emerging as price continues lower with decreasing volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

The ¥25.64–24.68 decline has seen retests at 38.2% (~¥25.39) and 61.8% (~¥25.24). Price is consolidating around 61.8%, suggesting a potential base for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

While the MACD death-cross has historically signaled bearish momentum in other assets, the backtest shows mixed results for DOGEJPY. Since 2022, 50 death-cross events occurred, but average 5- to 30-day returns were modest and often statistically insignificant. The 5-day average gain of +2.6% vs. a benchmark +0.7% suggests a mild positive drift, but the win-rate declines from ~62% to ~39% by day 30, indicating fading effectiveness. This implies a need for additional filters—such as volume dynamics and momentum regime—to confirm bearish setups. For DOGEJPY, MACD alone may not be a reliable standalone signal.