DOGEJPY Market Overview: 24-Hour Breakdown for September 15, 2025

• Price action saw a sharp intraday drop of 4.85% from ¥41.68 to ¥38.51 amid heavy bearish pressure in the overnight session.
• Momentum shifted decisively to the downside, with RSI hitting oversold territory near 25 and MACD confirming bearish divergence.
• Volume spiked sharply in the 24-hour window, particularly during the sell-off, signaling strong conviction in the downward move.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the drop, indicating heightened volatility.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at ¥40.72 on September 14 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥39.21 on September 15 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of ¥41.68 and a low of ¥38.51, with a total 24-hour volume of 7,494,213 DOGE and a notional turnover of approximately ¥305.8 million. The price action revealed a clear bearish bias over the course of the day, particularly from the early overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a bearish bias with key support levels emerging around ¥38.51, where the price found a temporary floor. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around ¥40.72 to ¥40.47, signaling a shift in sentiment. In the afternoon hours, the price consolidated around ¥39.00-39.20, with a potential short-term support forming at ¥39.00 and resistance at ¥39.30. A doji near the close of the 24-hour period indicated indecision, but the overall trend remained bearish.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA sat at around ¥39.55 and acted as a dynamic resistance, with the price failing to break back above it. On the daily chart, the price closed well below the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages, which were aligned in a descending order at ¥39.80, ¥40.10, and ¥40.40 respectively. This suggests a broader downtrend is in place.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line early in the overnight session, confirming the bearish breakout. The histogram remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, indicating sustained bearish momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory in the early morning hours, reaching a low of around 25, suggesting short-term exhaustion for the bears. However, the price continued to drop despite this, signaling a potential continuation of the downward move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off, with the Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the heightened uncertainty in the market. The price closed near the lower band at ¥39.21, indicating strong bearish pressure. The narrowest contraction occurred earlier in the day at ¥40.60, suggesting a period of consolidation before the breakout. The price appears to be testing the lower boundary of the bands, which could either lead to a bounce or a break below ¥38.50.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sell-off, particularly in the 00:00–03:00 ET window, with a notable spike occurring during the 8:00–9:30 ET session. The intraday volume totaled 7,494,213 DOGE, translating to a notional turnover of ¥305.8 million. The price action and volume moved in alignment during the sell-off, which suggests the bears are in control and the move is likely to continue. A divergence between volume and price could signal a reversal, but none was observed over the past 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing high at ¥41.68 and the low at ¥38.51, the 38.2% retracement level sits at ¥40.34 and the 61.8% level at ¥39.49. The price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level, indicating a potential area for short-term support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the broader move from ¥41.68 to ¥38.51 is at ¥40.34, and the 61.8% level is at ¥39.49—both areas will be key to watch for potential bounces or breakdowns.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be designed to exploit the bearish momentum observed in this 24-hour period by entering short positions when the price closes below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a target at the next key support near ¥38.50. Given the strong alignment between price and volume during the sell-off, this approach may have yielded consistent results over the last week. A similar trigger could also be applied using RSI divergence to filter for overbought or oversold conditions. This strategy emphasizes technical alignment and trend confirmation, making it a viable candidate for further testing on historical DOGEJPY data.