DOGEJPY Market Overview for 2025-11-09

Summary
• DOGEJPY opened at 26.82 and closed at 26.82 after a 24-hour range of 26.41–27.12.
• Volatility expanded in early AM ET with a sharp drop below 26.60 and a rebound in midday.
• Volume spiked to 319,768 units on the 00:30 ET bar amid a retracement to 26.82.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 26.82 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET, and closed at 26.82 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended from a low of 26.41 to a high of 27.12. Total volume across the period was 4,268,048 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥110,906,000 (calculated from price × volume). The price action showed a bearish retracement from a 27.12 peak early in the morning before stabilizing and consolidating into the close.

Structure & Formations

The session displayed a bearish continuation with key support levels forming around 26.50–26.60 and a resistance level around 26.95–27.00. A notable pattern was the bearish dark cloud cover at 00:30 ET, where the candle opened at 26.95 and closed at 26.82, suggesting short-term bearish continuation. A small bullish engulfing pattern formed at 22:30 ET, which was later negated by a strong bearish close in the early morning. The price remains within a descending triangle pattern, with a key breakout expected if it breaks below 26.50 or retests 27.00 with conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with a significant spike at 00:30 ET (319,768 units) during the sharp retracement phase. This aligns with the largest price drop from 26.95 to 26.82, suggesting increased bearish activity. Turnover diverged from price at the 03:00 ET bar (¥1.1M) where volume was moderate but the price declined sharply. This may indicate bearish exhaustion or short-covering pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed slightly below both the 20-period and 50-period EMA, indicating bearish bias in the near term. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period EMA are converging, while the 200-period EMA remains below the current price, indicating a longer-term neutral to mildly bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 01:00 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. RSI dipped into oversold territory around 03:15 ET at 29 and then rose back to 45 at close, suggesting some short-term stabilization. However, the bearish divergence in price and MACD indicates that the current downward trend may continue.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the 27.00–27.12 high, indicating a period of volatility. Price then collapsed back into the lower band, which is a bearish sign, especially as it closed below the 20-period SMA. A further contraction in the bands is expected if the price remains range-bound between 26.50 and 27.00 for the next 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 26.68 was hit during the early morning drop, reinforcing the bearish bias. A 38.2% retracement at 26.90 was briefly tested but rejected. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from the 26.41 low to the 27.12 high sits at 26.76, a potential support/resistance level for the next session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bullish Engulfing strategy has historically shown strong performance with DOGEJPY, achieving a 45.78% gain over the past year. The pattern appears to align well with the asset’s short-term momentum, with an 83% win ratio across six signals. The average 12-day holding period is relatively short, indicating that the price action typically accelerates quickly after the pattern forms. Maximum drawdowns are limited to 5%, suggesting effective risk control. This strategy’s high win ratio and strong cumulative returns make it a compelling approach for tactical traders, particularly when used in conjunction with Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band contractions.