DOGEJPY Market Overview – 2025-10-03

• DOGEJPY closed near its high after a 24-hour rally from 37.35 to 38.72.
• Volume surged in early hours, with a peak of 414,255 yen at 07:00 ET.
• Price rejected at 38.72, forming bearish divergence with RSI and forming a potential top.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion suggests heightened volatility.
• Turnover divergence suggests weakening momentum after 03:30 ET.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 37.35 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 38.72, and closed at 37.90 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total volume across the 24-hour window reached 6,678,309 DOGE, with a notional turnover of ~254,616,324 JPY. Price formed multiple bullish and bearish patterns, including a strong engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET and a potential bearish divergence near the 38.72 high.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels formed at 37.60 and 37.35, with a cluster of bearish candlestick patterns indicating potential exhaustion in the upward move. Notable formations include a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET, a hanging man at 04:00 ET, and a bearish evening star pattern at 03:30 ET. Resistance appeared at 38.20 and 38.50, with price failing to close above 38.72 in the last bullish push, suggesting a potential top. A doji at 01:00 ET and a long lower shadow at 07:45 ET indicate internal indecision and a shift in momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA at 19:30 ET, confirming the short-term bullish bias. However, by 03:30 ET, the 20SMA started to cross below the 50SMA, indicating potential bearish reversal. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA intersected at 38.30, signaling a possible continuation of the broader trend. The 100DMA remained slightly above the 200DMA, maintaining a bearish bias over the longer-term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line at 19:15 ET and pushed higher until 03:30 ET, confirming the strength of the bullish move. However, by 04:00 ET, the MACD began to flatten, suggesting weakening momentum. RSI peaked at 73 near 03:30 ET and declined sharply, entering neutral territory by 06:00 ET, indicating an overbought condition that failed to hold. RSI formed a bearish divergence with price at 03:30 ET, which may suggest a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a tight contraction between 01:00 and 04:00 ET, followed by a rapid expansion as price surged past 38.72. Price closed near the upper band at 38.72, which is a bearish sign, as it often leads to a pullback. The band width expansion increased volatility, and the closing price near the upper band may trigger short-term profit-taking. A retest of the lower band at 37.60 is expected in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 02:30 ET (308,947 DOGE) and 07:00 ET (414,255 DOGE), confirming the key price moves. Turnover, however, diverged in the last 4 hours, with volume increasing but turnover failing to match the earlier levels. This divergence suggests waning conviction among buyers. The total turnover was ~254,616,324 JPY, indicating robust participation despite the mixed sentiment. Price-volume relationships suggest a potential topping pattern forming after 03:30 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels aligned with key support and resistance levels, with the 38.2% retracement at 38.37 and the 61.8% retracement at 38.02. Price tested both levels, forming a potential bearish breakout from the 38.2% retracement after 04:00 ET. The 38.02 level held briefly but failed to provide lasting support, confirming a bearish bias. A break below 37.81 (38.2% of the prior bear leg) would likely accelerate the downward move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve identifying overbought RSI divergences with bearish candlestick patterns near key Fibonacci levels. Entries would be triggered on a close below the 38.2% retracement, with a stop above the prior high at 38.72. The strategy could be further refined by incorporating Bollinger Band width and volume spikes to filter false breakouts. This approach would aim to capture mean reversion in a volatile, overextended asset like DOGEJPY.