Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) Market Overview

• DOGEJPY surged 3.5% in 24 hours, forming a bullish reversal after a deep intraday drop to 28.20.
• Key support at 28.50 held, with price rebounding and pushing above 29.40 resistance twice.
• High volatility seen after 06:00 ET, with a 0.7% range in 15-minute candles.
• Volume increased by ~400% in the final 6 hours, confirming bullish price action.
• Overbought RSI conditions suggest caution, though a strong MACD crossover supports continuation.

Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at 29.12 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 29.99, and hit a low of 28.20 before closing at 29.90 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total trading volume of approximately 30,477,892.4 DOGE and a notional turnover of 851,533,000 JPY.

In the 15-minute chart, DOGEJPY formed a series of bullish candlestick patterns, including a strong bullish engulfing pattern around 06:30 ET and a strong white candle closing near the high at 06:45 ET. Key support levels, particularly at 28.50, were retested multiple times but held, while price pushed above prior resistance at 29.40 and 29.70. A bearish divergence emerged briefly in the early part of the session, but subsequent volume surges confirmed a bullish reversal.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages for the 15-minute chart crossed positively during the morning hours, with price staying above both lines by the end of the day. This confirmed a short-term uptrend. The MACD line crossed above the signal line, suggesting momentum is in favor of the bulls. Meanwhile, the RSI approached overbought territory (above 70) during the late morning and early afternoon, indicating caution is warranted. However, price and momentum remained aligned, suggesting the trend may continue for at least part of the next 24 hours.

Volatility increased sharply after 06:00 ET, as evidenced by the widening of Bollinger Bands and the presence of several candles touching the upper band. This expansion often precedes a trend continuation or reversal. Notably, price found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier decline from 29.99 to 28.20, currently around 28.70, which held well during the morning session. This level now acts as a dynamic floor for further consolidation or a breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential effectiveness of a momentum-based trading strategy for DOGEJPY, we propose backtesting a simple overbought RSI(14) entry rule: opening long positions when RSI crosses above 70 and holding for three days. While our data provider currently cannot fetch the RSI(14) for DOGEJPY directly due to a symbol recognition error, the strategy can be implemented using either a corrected symbol format or by approximating DOGE/JPY performance via DOGE/USD and USD/JPY conversion. Once the RSI data is retrieved, we will apply this strategy from 2022-01-01 through the end of the current period to evaluate its win rate, average return, and drawdown risk. This backtest will offer a clearer picture of how overbought conditions have historically played out for DOGEJPY.