Dogecoin/Yen 24-Hour Market Overview

Summary
• Price fell sharply from ¥28.63 to ¥25.95 amid heavy volume.
• RSI hit oversold levels, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening as the pair dropped below key moving averages.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, Dogecoin/Yen (DOGEJPY) opened at ¥28.29 and traded between ¥28.63 and ¥24.74 before closing at ¥26.06. Total volume over 24 hours was 15,042,735.0 DOGE, with a notional turnover of ¥400,570,234 (calculated as volume × close prices). The pair experienced a pronounced selloff, particularly in the late afternoon and early evening ET, with volume surging to over 973,583 DOGE in the 15:45 ET candle.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a sharp bearish continuation after a key resistance at ¥28.63 failed to hold. A long bearish candle at 15:45 ET (¥26.15 to ¥24.74) formed a potential breakdown structure. Earlier in the morning, a bullish engulfing pattern briefly pushed the price higher, but it was quickly reversed. A doji formed at 03:15 ET near ¥27.51, signaling indecision before the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near ¥27.40, with the 200-period MA at ¥26.75, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. The 100-period MA is intermediate support at ¥26.90.

MACD & RSI

The RSI for the 15-minute chart collapsed into oversold territory below 30 after midday, indicating potential for a countertrend bounce. The MACD turned bearish earlier in the session, with a negative crossover and a declining histogram, confirming bearish momentum. However, a RSI rebound could trigger a short-term rally before resuming the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked late in the session, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly. The price gapped below the lower band during the 15:45 ET candle, reinforcing a breakdown scenario. The move suggests heightened uncertainty, likely driven by broader market sentiment or macroeconomic factors.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the late afternoon, with the 15:45 ET candle alone accounting for nearly 973,583 DOGE traded. This spike in volume coincided with the price breakdown and indicates conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover also spiked during that period, confirming the strength of the selloff. Divergence between early bullish volume and bearish price action also suggests possible bearish exhaustion after a strong short-covering rally in the morning.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing (¥28.63 to ¥24.74), the 23.6% retracement sits at ¥27.34 and the 38.2% at ¥26.92. The 61.8% level is near ¥26.28, which could act as support if the pair retests the range. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the broader move from ¥28.63 to ¥24.74 also aligns with the 20-period MA near ¥26.90, reinforcing potential short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish momentum and RSI oversold levels align with the assumptions of the proposed strategy: "Sell DOGEJPY when RSI < 30, hold 1 day." Given the RSI reading fell into oversold territory during the session, this would have triggered a sell signal. The following 24-hour close at ¥26.06 suggests the strategy would have held through the selloff, aligning with the observed price action. However, as the RSI rebounded slightly at the end of the session and the price closed near the lower end of the daily range, a one-day hold may have captured a significant portion of the move. While no stop-loss was applied, the volume-heavy breakdown implies the strategy might perform well during such sharp selloffs, assuming no intervening short-covering rallies.