Dogecoin Trades Near 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement Line at $0.20

Cantonese Cat, a pseudonymous technician, has sparked discussion on Crypto-Twitter by sharing a logarithmic Fibonacci road-map for Dogecoin's fourth bull cycle. The chart, created on TradingView and posted on 13 July, outlines both horizontal retracement levels and upward-sloping Fib-channels, providing a detailed set of targets for the meme-coin.

At the time of Friday’s close, Dogecoin was trading near $0.20, almost exactly at the 0.5 retracement line, which is highlighted on the graphic at $0.19049. The chart shows price movement compressing inside a three-year ascending channel, with the lower rail providing support since the June 2022 capitulation. Volatility has been decreasing within this corridor, forming a broadening wedge that has respected every golden-ratio diagonal printed on the chart.

Cantonese Cat’s horizontal grid starts with the cycle floor at Fib 0, which is $0.04909, and ascends through several intermediate resistances: 0.618 at $0.26232, 0.707 at approximately $0.33, 0.786 at $0.41368, and 0.886 at $0.54253. The 1.0 line, representing Dogecoin’s May 2021 macro-top, is fixed at $0.73905 and forms the upper boundary of what the analyst refers to as “the first liquidity wall.”

Beyond this, blue extensions reach far beyond previous cycle extremes: 1.272 at $1.54518, 1.414 at $2.27089, and 1.618 at $3.94842. Super-cycle projections are at 2.0 ($11.12397) and the notable 2.272 extension at $23.25744—levels the trader himself emphasizes are “purely imaginative unless unprecedented liquidity flows in.”

Golden channels running diagonally across the chart translate the same ratios into time-adjusted dynamic support and resistance. Internal rails marked 0.236 and 0.382 have repeatedly capped minor rallies since mid-2022, while the 0.5 diagonal is now acting as an inflection point underneath the spot price.

The current weekly candle is testing that rail from above, aligning with the analyst’s separate Ichimoku view that DOGE is “still under Tenkan resistance” and “will probably close the week right around 20 cents, then fight another day to push through resistance later. I don’t think we’ll get past this level on its first try.”

The longer-term outlook that keeps the feline strategist optimistic is visible on the two-month chart. There, DOGE has formed what fellow technician @ManehattanStonk labels a “rising three methods” formation—a bullish continuation pattern that Cantonese Cat notes is “playing out alongside XLM.”

Volume dynamics appear to support the thesis: in another post, the analyst calls recent selling “pathetic” and argues: “Who’s selling DOGE? Nobody important. Sell volume’s pathetic. All it takes is just some volume to come in and this thing will pump to the moon.”

Whether that pump can realistically reach the 2.272 extension—and thus the meme-laden target of $23—is the question that triggered the thread. Cantonese Cat’s answer is straightforward: “I don’t think it’s going to $23 this cycle.” The comment underscores his broader point that Fibonacci projections, while mathematically neat, are ultimately dependent on liquidity conditions that no one can forecast.

The $3.94 region, marked by the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, stands out as a credible upside target. Analyst Kevin notes that in every previous bull cycle, Dogecoin ultimately advanced to this very extension.

At the time of press, DOGE was trading at $0.20575.