Dogecoin Surges 16% in Open Interest Amid Bullish Signals

Dogecoin (DOGE) has garnered significant attention from traders and analysts recently, with indications of a potential rally for the meme-coin. Top analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted a bullish market condition that supports a price rebound for DOGE. The cryptocurrency dipped toward the $0.13–$0.15 demand zone before experiencing a notable surge in price. This upward movement has been accompanied by a substantial increase in derivatives data, with Open Interest rising by 16% to exceed $2 billion and options volume surging by 400%. This surge often indicates significant bets on upward price movements, with many now focusing on the $0.20 resistance level. If DOGE can close a daily candle above this line, it may pave the way toward $0.27.

However, the technical setup for DOGE presents mixed signals. The Stochastic RSI crossing above 80 suggests an overbought zone. Historically, coins have remained above overbought readings when buyers continue to push prices higher. Traders are watching for real volume behind any move above the descending trendline near $0.19. Without substantial volume, the rally may stall or reverse. Additionally, network activity shows conflicting signals. Daily active addresses decreased to 34K, and transaction counts dropped to 15K as of July 3. This represents a sharp decline from the over 500K addresses and transactions observed in the last week of June. Lower usage could hinder the rally if retail traders do not reengage soon.

Despite these mixed signals, the sentiment toward Dogecoin has improved compared to a week ago. The influx of traders into options and the increase in Open Interest indicate a rise in speculative interest. Large spot inflows show that whales have returned, with a net inflow of $8.20 million into spot wallets. This marks a significant shift after weeks of outflows. In previous cycles, fresh whale purchases have aligned with mid-term rallies. On-chain metrics add another layer of insight, with Dogecoin’s MVRV Z-score climbing back to 0.355 after hitting near-historical lows late in June. This figure measures the average profit holders stand to make. A rising score suggests that fewer holders are at a loss, which could attract new buyers. However, MVRV is backward-looking and cannot predict whether the price will break through key resistance levels.

The current price of DOGE is $0.16, and the market is closely monitoring whether the bulls can maintain the price above $0.15. If DOGE drops below $0.16 with high trading volume, the bullish outlook will likely weaken quickly. At present, the chart indicates a clear message: hold the line. If DOGE can sustain its price above $0.16, it could set the stage for a potential 50% rally to $0.24. Conversely, if the price falls below $0.16, the bullish outlook will likely diminish rapidly. The market is closely watching whether the bulls can hold the line at $0.15, as this will determine the future direction of DOGE's price.