Is Dogecoin Ready for a Bullish Reversal Amid Whale Accumulation and Technical Buy Signals?

In late 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) finds itself at a crossroads. The meme coin, once a symbol of retail-driven volatility, now faces a complex interplay of whale behavior, technical indicators, and on-chain sentiment. With the top 100 Dogecoin wallets increasing their holdings by 9% over the past 30 days and mid-tier whales (100 million to 1 billion DOGE) accumulating 32.38 billion tokens since October, the market is watching closely for signs of a potential reversal. Meanwhile, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and on-chain metrics such as HODL Waves suggest a tug-of-war between bearish fundamentals and emerging bullish momentum. This article dissects the data to determine whether Dogecoin is primed for a short-term rebound or if the bearish tide remains unrelenting.

Whale Accumulation: A Mixed Bag of Signals

Dogecoin's whale activity in late 2025 has been anything but uniform. Large holders with 10 million to 100 million DOGE have reduced their balances by approximately $730 million in value since October, signaling a lack of confidence among the most influential players. This divergence from mid-tier whale accumulation-where wallets added 61.1% to their holdings in the same period-has weakened the price structure, as noted by analysts. However, mid-tier accumulation has provided a stabilizing effect, with HODL Waves data indicating that these holders are increasingly locking in tokens for the long term.

The recent 24-hour accumulation of 138 million DOGE by whales further complicates the narrative. While this suggests strong confidence among major holders, it contrasts sharply with the broader sell-off by large wallets. This duality raises a critical question: Are whales accumulating in anticipation of a rebound, or are they simply consolidating ahead of a deeper correction?

Technical Indicators: A Bullish RSI and Bearish Momentum

From a technical perspective, Dogecoin's RSI has dipped into a historically significant zone around the 33 level-a condition that has occurred only four times in the past 11 years. Each of these instances coincided with the end of prolonged bearish phases and the start of new uptrends. Combined with the price action in the $0.13 to $0.14 range, this suggests that a bottoming process may be underway.

However, the bearish case remains robust. Dogecoin has broken below key support levels at $0.1450 and $0.1420, with the MACD and RSI still in bearish territory. A further breakdown below $0.1320 could accelerate the decline toward $0.1250 or lower. The formation of a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart and a double bottom structure offers some hope for a reversal, but these signals must be confirmed by a sustained break above $0.1450 to unlock upside potential toward $0.20.

On-Chain Sentiment: Exchange Flows and Derivative Imbalances

On-chain sentiment tells a story of conflicting forces. After months of net outflows-peaking at −5 to −6 billion DOGE in Q4 2025-exchange flows turned positive in late November for the first time in six months. This shift, dubbed a "major rebound signal" by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, historically correlates with price recoveries.

Yet, the broader on-chain picture remains bearish. HODL Waves data reveals declining confidence, with short-term holders reducing their share of the supply from 17.47% in January to 7.24% in November. Long-term holders also saw their stake drop from 40.32% to 21.87%, indicating increased selling pressure. Derivative data exacerbates this concern: on Gate.io, short liquidation leverage totaled $776.75 million, dwarfing longs at $151.77 million. This imbalance creates a potential short squeeze if the price rises slightly, but it also underscores the market's bearish bias.

Macro Factors: ETFs and Bitcoin's Death Cross

The broader macro environment adds another layer of uncertainty. The launch of U.S. spot Dogecoin ETFs has provided a modest tailwind, but exchange flows for these ETFs have plummeted to $142,000 as of December 2025, signaling waning enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's "death cross"-a bearish technical pattern-has weighed on the entire crypto market, with fear-driven sentiment spilling over to altcoins like Dogecoin.

The potential approval of a DOGE ETF under Section 8(a) remains a wildcard. If realized, it could inject regulatory credibility and attract institutional capital. However, delays or rejections would likely deepen the bearish sentiment already gripping the market.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

Dogecoin's short-term reversal potential hinges on a delicate balance. Whale accumulation and technical indicators like the RSI and falling wedge pattern suggest a possible rebound is on the horizon. However, bearish fundamentals-including divergent whale behavior, declining HODL confidence, and heavy short positions-cannot be ignored.

For now, the market is in a holding pattern. If mid-tier whale accumulation continues and exchange flows remain positive, Dogecoin could stabilize and test the $0.1450 level as a potential breakout point. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.1320 would likely reignite the downtrend toward $0.05–$0.06. Investors must remain vigilant, as the coming weeks will determine whether Dogecoin can escape its bearish trap or succumb to the broader market's downward spiral.