Dogecoin Price Surges 5% Amid SEC ETF Review

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing applications for Dogecoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which has drawn significant attention from the market. The odds of approval for these ETFs are estimated to be between 75% and 90% for the year 2025. As the decision date approaches, market volatility is expected to increase.

The SEC's evaluation of Dogecoin ETF proposals is a pivotal moment for digital assets. The price movements of Dogecoin indicate that the market is highly sensitive to regulatory developments. Key institutional players, including Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise, are actively involved in the process, aiming to expand their digital asset offerings.

Recent market reactions show heightened activity around Dogecoin, with increased interest demonstrated by price movements and spikes in trading volume. On-chain data suggests that this interest has knock-on effects across the broader cryptocurrency market. If approved, the ETFs could attract significant institutional inflows, enhancing Dogecoin's market presence. Social media engagement also reflects heightened retail interest, with investors eagerly awaiting the SEC's decision.

Historical data from the approvals of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggests that such approvals can lead to significant liquidity boosts. Dogecoin's journey mirrors these precedents, indicating potential for enhanced market efficiency if the ETFs are approved. However, this process is subject to persistent regulatory scrutiny. Broader implications include potential advances in regulatory acceptance, which could affect Dogecoin and similar assets. Market sentiment, guided by historical data from BTC and ETH approvals, indicates expected institutional engagement post-approval.

Dogecoin is currently at a critical juncture, with its price hovering around $0.18, having risen by 5% within the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has re-entered a significant demand zone, which historically has attracted buying activity. This zone, standing at $0.17, could potentially drive the next upward rally if Dogecoin can close above this level. The Point of Control (PoC) line at $0.224 serves as a strong resistance, and a firm close above this level would confirm a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. The likelihood of such a rally is supported by the rising parallel channel and the upwards sloping Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, both of which suggest an uptrend.

However, the odds of a Dogecoin ETF being approved in the US have dropped to 75%, down from 81% earlier in the week. This decrease comes after the exclusion of meme coins from a blue-chip crypto ETF, citing their volatility. This exclusion has led to a reduction in institutional interest, creating a bearish sentiment and a drop in the long/short ratio for DOGE on the Binance exchange to its lowest level in a month. The closure of long positions indicates that traders are becoming less convinced that the SEC will approve these products.

Despite the mixed sentiment, Dogecoin's price remains at a make-or-break level. If it fails to rally above the current resistance level, it might fall to $0.15 and consolidate before the next move. The critical support level for Dogecoin is $0.15, which bulls have defended for three months. The direction that Dogecoin might take remains unclear, depending on whether the current demand zone will attract buyers. While a rally to $0.22 might be in the making, the drop in ETF approval odds indicates that DOGE might face headwinds.