Dogecoin Price Stagnation Raises Breakdown Fears

Dogecoin has experienced a period of stagnation, with its price remaining relatively unchanged for 42 days. This lack of movement has led to concerns about a potential breakdown in its value. Independent market analyst Kevin has been closely monitoring the situation, noting that the last significant price movement was a sharp sell-off over six weeks ago. Since then, the price has compressed into a narrow band, threatening to lose the structural support it reclaimed at the end of March.

Kevin has identified key horizontal levels that have been in play for weeks. The upper bound of the range is around $0.156, while the lower bound is at $0.138, a level he has repeatedly described as his "line in the sand." A weekly candle close beneath $0.138 would indicate that the rally that began in late 2023 has fully broken down. "If Dogecoin breaks $0.138 on weekly closes, then it’s probably over," he cautioned.

Momentum signals have also been inconclusive. Kevin has pushed back against social-media claims that a bullish cross is already in play on the 3-day MACD. He emphasized that a confirmed cross requires the expansion of the moving averages, which has not yet occurred. Without this expansion, the fledgling uptick in the histogram could easily reverse.

With the spot price inertia now stretching to 42 days, the risk-reward scenario has become compressed. Kevin frames the decision tree in stark terms: if Dogecoin holds the $0.156–$0.138 range, it maintains its constructive medium-term structure. However, if it loses this range, traders must look down to the psychological $0.10 shelf, where even a counter-trend bounce would only reach $0.25–0.26.

The broader market backdrop offers little immediate relief. Using Bitcoin as a leading indicator, Kevin notes that the entire complex remains in a "major correctional phase," triggered when the three-day MACD crossed down in January 2025. Historical study of Bitcoin’s macro pullbacks suggests they persist anywhere from 114 to 174 days, regardless of economic circumstances. "They operate the same way no matter what the economic circumstances are. They last anywhere from 114 to 174 [days]. Every single time whether it’s a bear market [or] bull market. Bad news, good news doesn’t matter. They always last the same amount of time. 174 days being the longest in history, 114 days being the average of every correct major correctional period in history," Kevin explained.

Should Bitcoin fail to defend $70,000, the odds of a fresh all-time high in the short run would be quite low. "If Bitcoin breaks $70,000 and goes into the $60,000’s, we’re gonna get a huge bounce out of there. You get a huge countertrend rally. Everything will look rosy again, but the chances are that it makes a new high very slim. Same goes for Dogecoin. If Dogecoin comes down to this $0.10 level and it gets a bounce, maybe it comes like a big counter trend rally back up to like $0.25 or $0.26 and then it just rolls over and that’s the end," Kevin stated.

For Dogecoin, the next decisive signal is likely to be a hard break of the $0.156–$0.138 corridor or a confirmed momentum resurgence on the higher-time-frame MACD—whichever comes first. Until then, the asset remains trapped in a state of inaction, with little to discuss. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.1621.