Dogecoin Poised for Rally as Analyst Sees 1.71% Inflation and USDT Dominance Drop

Technical analyst Kevin, known as Kev Capital TA, presented a compelling bullish case for Dogecoin during a livestream that extended beyond an hour. He argued that the market is on the brink of a genuine altcoin season, with Dogecoin poised for a significant rally. Kevin's analysis was based on a double-bottom pattern visible on Dogecoin’s higher-time-frame chart, which he believes positions the asset for a substantial move once resistance levels are overcome.

Kevin began by situating Dogecoin within a broader macroeconomic context. He noted that recent inflation data, including CPI and PPI prints, could introduce volatility. However, he emphasized that the direction of the trend is already determined by structural forces. According to Kevin, the true inflation rate, as measured by Trueflation, is at 1.71 percent, which is below the official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. He argued that inflation is not a significant concern as long as it remains under two percent.

With macro risks under control, Kevin focused on USDT dominance, a metric he has used throughout the cycle to time rotations into riskier assets. The market-share chart for Tether has completed a bear-flag breakdown and is now pressing the 0.786 Fibonacci support band at roughly 4.14 percent. Kevin explained that when money flow is deep red on USDT-D, it signals a green light for altcoins. He predicted that fresh downside in the stablecoin gauge would coincide almost mechanically with upside in DOGE. Although a hotter-than-expected CPI could deliver a short, counter-trend bounce in USDT-D, Kevin insisted that the path of least resistance is lower.

The anchor for Kevin’s bullish thesis is an unmistakable double-bottom on Dogecoin’s weekly chart. This pattern formed exactly on the macro 0.382 retracement of the 2024–25 advance and directly atop a multi-year down-trend line. Kevin described the pattern as a gift, noting that volume profiles confirm the pattern: sellers exhausted themselves on the second dip, while relative-strength momentum created a higher low, an early signal that bulls are wresting control.

Kevin’s conviction is further supported by what is unfolding in the aggregate altcoin indices. Total 3, which represents the market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ether, has slammed into a resistance “yellow box” that capped rallies all spring. However, Kevin believes the ceiling will crack soon. A pending daily golden cross on Total 2, which represents the market cap excluding Bitcoin, marks the fourth of the cycle. Each prior cross generated a brief pullback of 9-19 percent before giving way to fresh highs. Kevin advised managing risk during this period but emphasized that the trend is higher once the dust settles.

For Dogecoin specifically, Kevin identified a hierarchy of breakout objectives: the local range high at $0.21, the $0.48 pivot from 2024, and the former all-time high near $0.74. Beyond that, he flagged extensions at $1.32 and $2.00, noting that targets lose utility if projected too far in advance. Kevin reminded viewers that DOGE is already a ten-bagger off its June 2024 trough—a feat matched by few large-cap tokens.

Kevin dismissed the significance of Elon Musk and X and Tesla integration rumors, stating that Dogecoin’s 10× rebound happened without any help from the world’s richest man. He believes that what matters is liquidity, specifically the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet trajectory and the timing of its eventual pivot away from quantitative tightening. Kevin pointed to a perfect inverse correlation between Fed asset-runoff periods and historical altcoin booms, suggesting that when quantitative tightening ends, Bitcoin dominance tops, and the real alt-season begins.

Kevin projected that a decisive weekly close above Bitcoin’s 1.886 fib at $120,000—and a simultaneous rollover in USDT dominance—would ignite the next leg. In that scenario, Dogecoin’s double-bottom would evolve into a full trend-reversal, vaulting price into territory last visited during the meme-mania of 2021. Kevin concluded by advising viewers to stay calm, stay cool, and let the chart do the work.

At the time of the livestream, DOGE was trading at $0.19126.