Dogecoin’s Plunge: Bearish Signals vs. Bullish Cycle Predictions

Dogecoin (DOGE) continued its downward trajectory on September 23, 2025, sliding 5% to $0.2265, extending a week-long losing streak that has erased nearly 20% of its value. The decline coincided with broader cryptocurrency market weakness, as investors retreated from speculative assets amid macroeconomic uncertainties and expectations of delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts. On-chain data revealed $26.1 million in net outflows and a 8.23% drop in derivatives open interest to $4.79 billion, signaling reduced speculative activity. Meanwhile, the coin’s price failed to hold key support levels at $0.239–$0.225, raising concerns of a potential retest of the $0.18 floor.

Technical analysis highlighted a bearish setup, with DOGE trading below the 20-day EMA at $0.255 and within a descending wedge pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped to 46, reflecting waning momentum, while the Parabolic SAR turned bearish after the token’s rejection at the $0.304 resistance zone. Derivatives metrics further reinforced caution: open interest in futures contracts fell 8.23% in 24 hours, and options liquidations totaled $28 million, predominantly long positions. Analysts noted that without a sustained rebound above $0.30, the price could face renewed pressure toward $0.213 and $0.195.

Despite the short-term bearish trend, KrissPax, a widely followed crypto analyst, argued that DOGE remains in a four-year bull cycle. Citing historical patterns from 2017, 2021, and 2024, KrissPax contended that the current correction is part of a cyclical structure, with the token still on track to test $1 in the next major rally. The analyst emphasized that DOGE’s price has completed its first upward phase in the cycle, mirroring the 2021 bull run, and that two additional legs could follow before reaching a peak. EtherNasyonaL, another analyst, echoed this view, noting that DOGE’s price action aligns with past parabolic rallies and that a monthly RSI above 80 could signal a bullish peak.

The market’s broader context, however, remains fraught. A 23% surge in DOGE’s 24-hour trading volume underscored selling pressure, while institutional outflows and a 4.53% drop in futures open interest to $1.2 billion highlighted waning confidence. The U.S. government shutdown fears and upward revisions to inflation data further exacerbated risk-off sentiment, with over $1.1 billion in liquidations reported across crypto derivatives. Kevin Capital, a crypto strategist, acknowledged the macroeconomic headwinds but stressed that institutional adoption and regulatory clarity could differentiate this cycle from previous ones.

Looking ahead, the path for DOGE hinges on stabilizing flows and a reestablishment of bullish momentum. A clean reclaim of $0.255 and subsequent break above $0.304 could reignite interest, potentially targeting $0.349–$0.37. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.225 would heighten the risk of a deeper correction toward $0.18. Analysts remain divided on timing, with some suggesting patience until the next phase of accumulation, while others warn of further volatility ahead of the Fed’s rate decisions and upcoming economic data.

Source: [1] Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction For September 23 (https://coinedition.com/dogecoin-doge-price-prediction-for-september-23-2025/)

[2] Why is Dogecoin Going Down? September Prediction Revealed (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/dogecoin-doge-september-crash/)

[3] Dogecoin Price Prediction Today, September 23, 2025 (https://investinghaven.com/crypto-blockchain/coins/doge/dogecoin-price-prediction-today-september-23-2025/)

[4] Dogecoin Slides 5% To Stretch Losing Streak, But This Analyst Says Memecoin 'Still In A Bull Cycle' (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/09/47882110/dogecoin-slides-5-to-stretch-losing-streak-but-this-analyst-says-memecoin-still-in-a-bull-cycle)

[5] 4-Year Cycle Says Dogecoin Price Will Reach $1, Here’s Why (https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:4fe424a73094b:0-4-year-cycle-says-dogecoin-price-will-reach-1-here-s-why/)

[6] Why Dogecoin (DOGE) may be entering a new … (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/why-dogecoin-doge-may-be-entering-a-new-parabolic-bull-run-202509191327)

[7] Dogecoin Price Completes First Bull Phase Similar to … (https://holder.io/news/dogecoin-bull-phase-completes/)

[8] BTC ETH DOGE slide amid U.S. govt shutdown fears: Crypto … (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/crypto-down-today-why-crypto-down-today-bitcoin-drops-below-112000-ethereum-falls-under-4000-dogecoin-solana-and-xrp-decline-2-64-7-as-u-s-government-shutdown-fears-and-1-65b-in-liquidations-hit-the-market/articleshow/124130510.cms)

[9] BTC, ETH, DOGE Price News: Declines Pick Up Speed - CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/25/bitcoin-tumbles-back-to-usd110k-as-crypto-bounce-fails-ether-plunges-8)