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Dogecoin (DOGE) price movements have drawn increased attention following recent on-chain activity indicating risk aversion among large holders. These whale-level investors have been offloading significant volumes of
amid declining price momentum, signaling a lack of confidence in near-term recovery. The memecoin’s price has fallen by over 24% since hitting a multi-month high of $0.28 on July 21, and on-chain metrics suggest further downward pressure may be on the horizon.Derivatives data highlights a drop in speculative interest, with Dogecoin’s futures open interest (OI) decreasing to $3.24 billion from a peak of $5.35 billion on July 22. This 8% decline indicates a reduction in short-term trading positions and a cooling off in bullish speculation. According to Santiment, the number of wallets holding between $10 million and $100 million worth of DOGE has dropped by 6% since late July, further reinforcing the trend of de-risking by large holders.
A notable example of this behavior was flagged by Whale Alert, which tracked a transfer of 900 million DOGE—valued at over $200 million—to Binance by an unknown whale. Such activity raises concerns about potential short-term sell pressure, as large holders tend to offload assets when anticipating further price declines.
Network activity has also shown a marked slowdown. The daily active addresses on the
blockchain have dropped to 58,000, a significant decline from the peak of 1.65 million in Q4 2024 and 674,500 in July. This reduction in active addresses suggests reduced user engagement and weaker retail interest, which could further hamper the coin’s price trajectory.From a technical perspective, Dogecoin is currently forming a rising wedge pattern, a bearish reversal formation that often precedes a significant price drop. The coin is retesting the lower trendline of the wedge at $0.218. A break below this level could trigger a deeper correction, with a technical target of $0.12—representing a potential 45% decline from current levels. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to 49 from overbought territory at 85 on July 20, signaling that bearish momentum has been steadily building.
To avoid further losses, analysts suggest that DOGE needs to hold above the $0.19–$0.20 range or the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. A failure to maintain this support could lead to a drop toward $0.16, adding to the downward trend. While no investment or trading move is without risk, the data presented suggests a bearish near-term outlook for Dogecoin unless a significant reversal occurs.
Source:
[1] Dogecoin whales de-risk as DOGE price is in danger ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/dogecoin-whales-de-risk-doge-price-dropping-45-percent)
[2] Dogecoin (DOGE) Technical Analysis (https://www.investing.com/crypto/dogecoin/technical)

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