Dogecoin News Today: Dogecoin Rises 2% as Retail Optimism Fails to Offset Weak Institutional Demand

Dogecoin (DOGE) moved higher by nearly 2% on Monday, bouncing from a 3.57% decline on the previous day. The price action has drawn attention as the coin tests key support levels and navigates a consolidation range between $0.1332 and $0.1568.

Technical indicators, including the RSI and MACD, show mixed signals, signaling a potential inflection point in the short-term trend.

Institutional demand for DOGE has weakened, with ETF inflows tapering off in recent weeks. Sosovalue data revealed only $171,920 in inflows for Dogecoin ETFs over the past week, concentrated mostly on a single day. This lack of sustained institutional support contrasts with rising retail participation, as open interest in DOGE futures has increased by nearly 5% in the last 24 hours.

Derivatives activity has surged, with over $1.48 billion in DOGE futures commitments as of December 12. Gate.io and Binance are the largest contributors to open interest, accounting for 24.82% and 18.38% of total positions, respectively. Long liquidations have outweighed short liquidations, reflecting a bearish tilt in the derivatives market, although bullish positioning has increased slightly.

Mixed Technical Signals and Key Support Levels

Dogecoin is currently trading near $0.1409 after a 2.16% gain in the last 24 hours. The price remains within a consolidation range between the November 21 low at $0.1332 and the November 26 high at $0.1568. The RSI has settled at 40, hovering near the oversold boundary, which suggests a potential rebound may be in the cards if buyers step in.

The 100-day and 50-day EMA levels represent critical benchmarks for DOGE. A breakout above the 100-day EMA at $0.1813 would signal stronger momentum, but the coin must first reclaim the 50-day EMA to sustain a meaningful rally. Failure to do so would maintain downward pressure and keep sellers in control.

Rising Bullish Bets and Derivatives Exposure

Despite weak institutional support, bullish positioning has increased in the derivatives market. CoinGlass data shows the long-to-short ratio has edged up to 51.05%, a sign of growing optimism among traders. Open interest remains elevated, with traders committing over $1.48 billion in DOGE futures, a 1.08% increase in the past 24 hours.

However, long liquidations have totaled $3.33 million over the same period, outpacing short liquidations. This indicates that bearish forces are still dominant, even as retail investors show cautious optimism. The balance between these forces will likely determine the next directional move for DOGE.

Market Sentiment and Fed Outlook

The broader market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision. With investors pricing in a potential 25-basis-point rate cut, traders are monitoring whether macroeconomic factors will influence DOGE's trajectory. The price of Dogecoin has historically shown correlations with broader risk assets, and a dovish Fed statement could amplify bullish momentum.

TVL in Dogecoin-based DeFi protocols has remained resilient, despite a 6.51% drop in the last 24 hours. DeFiLlama data shows TVL is still above historical averages, reflecting sustained interest in the ecosystem. If the TVL stabilizes or sees fresh inflows, it could reinforce the coin's ability to maintain price stability during periods of volatility.

What This Means for Investors

Dogecoin's near-term outlook remains uncertain, with key support at $0.1332 and resistance near $0.1568. A break above this range could target the R1 pivot point at $0.17882, but a breach below $0.1332 would expose the S1 pivot point at $0.12319. Investors should closely monitor the RSI and MACD for confirmation of a trend reversal.

For now, the market appears to be in a holding pattern, with both bulls and bears positioning for potential follow-through moves. Institutional activity remains subdued, while retail demand continues to provide a floor for the price. A breakout from the consolidation range will likely depend on a mix of technical triggers and macroeconomic catalysts in the coming days.