Dogecoin News Today: Will DOGE's Death Cross Spell 90% Collapse or a Rally from $0.22?

Dogecoin on the Edge: After a 36% Crash, Is the Worst Still to Come?

Dogecoin (DOGE) has plunged 36% since its September high, trading at $0.1981 as of press time, sparking concerns among investors about further downside. Technical indicators suggest prolonged bearish momentum, with the cryptocurrency poised to test critical support levels and potentially form a death cross—a bearish signal where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below the 200-day EMA, according to a Coinpaper report. Analysts warn that DOGE could retest $0.1515, a 22% drop from current levels, while a breakdown below $0.0570 could trigger a catastrophic 90% decline to $0.0052, the Coinpaper report adds.

The weekly chart reveals a bearish flag pattern, with prices collapsing between $0.4838 and $0.1295, signaling heightened vulnerability. Whale activity has exacerbated selling pressure, with 2 billion DOGE—worth over $400 million—dumped by large holders in 48 hours, according to a BeInCrypto report. This mass exodus reflects growing skepticism about DOGE's ability to recover, particularly as institutional interest has yet to materialize despite the recent launch of the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF.

The DOGE ETF, which debuted in September with $30.7 million in assets under management, has seen stagnant inflows, lagging behind the $100 million-plus performance of its XRP counterpart, the Coinpaper report noted. The 1.5% expense ratio, significantly higher than typical U.S. ETFs, has deterred cost-conscious investors, the Coinpaper report also found. Meanwhile, the broader market has witnessed $364 million in liquidations this month, amplifying volatility and eroding confidence.

Technical analysts highlight the looming death cross as a critical catalyst. While such patterns are lagging indicators, they often reinforce bearish sentiment, particularly in a market already reeling from 65% losses since December's $0.48 peak, according to a Tokenpost analysis. The death cross, combined with a bearish flag on the weekly chart, suggests continued downward pressure absent new bullish catalysts, the Coinpaper report warned.

Despite the gloom, some analysts note that oversold conditions could attract bargain hunters. DOGE currently hovers near $0.20, with support at $0.19 and resistance at $0.22, BeInCrypto reported. A breakthrough above $0.22 could reverse the trend, targeting $0.26 and eventually $0.31—a 53% rebound. However, failure to hold key levels may force the coin into a prolonged downtrend.

The SEC's recent approval of generic listing standards has accelerated crypto ETF launches, but DOGE's underperformance underscores structural challenges. While XRP and DOGE ETFs generated $54.7 million in combined debut volume, a Caffeine and Crypto post noted that DOGE's higher fees and weaker adoption have hindered its appeal. With no immediate catalysts on the horizon and whale selling intensifying, the path to recovery remains fraught.