Dogecoin News Today: Alphractal signals potential Dogecoin rally with on-chain indicators and $0.54 CVDD top

Alphractal, a cryptocurrency analytics platform, has highlighted emerging on-chain signals that could indicate a potential rally for Dogecoin (DOGE). In a post published on X on August 21, the firm outlined several metrics that historically have aligned with major price accelerations for UTXO-based blockchains like DOGE, Bitcoin, and Litecoin [1]. These include miner resilience, a stable Network Stress Index, and model-derived metrics such as Alpha Price and Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) [1].

The firm notes that Dogecoin miners remain highly active, with hash rate activity trending toward record levels. This, combined with the current low Network Stress Index, suggests a balanced and stable network in terms of economic, security, and activity dimensions [1]. The Network Stress Index, which aggregates Fee Stress (40% weight), Hash Stress (30-day volatility—30% weight), and Supply Stress (7-day active supply volatility—30% weight), currently shows no signs of instability [1].

Alphractal further explains that its Alpha Price model, a behavioral anchor for price movement, and an adjusted CVDD model, used to identify tops and bottoms in UTXO blockchains, are currently positioned in a way that historically has signaled a potential trend change. The CVDD top is currently at $0.54, but this level could rise if dormant Dogecoin supply re-enters circulation. The firm suggests that if this occurs, the $0.54 level could become a floor rather than a ceiling, with further upside potential extending above $1 [1].

The analytics also emphasize the importance of miner behavior as a reinforcing factor. With hash rate activity rising, the network is considered well-positioned to handle increased demand. Price action is currently clustering near what the firm refers to as the True Market Mean Price, a level that has historically signaled the beginning of major DOGE rallies [1].

Despite the constructive setup, Alphractal warns that the current market structure includes rising leverage in crypto trading. This introduces the risk of sudden price corrections and mass liquidations, even if DOGE gains upward momentum. The firm stresses the importance of caution, given the potential for sharp downside shocks [1].

Alphractal’s analysis suggests a testable scenario: a stable network, strong miner activity, and price dynamics aligned with historically significant on-chain indicators may create the conditions for a DOGE price breakout. The current CVDD top is at $0.54, and if dormant supply awakens, the target could extend toward $1. The outcome will depend on organic demand versus the leverage-driven volatility inherent in the current market [1].

At the time of the report, Dogecoin was trading at $0.218 [1].

Source: [1] Dogecoin About To Explode? On-Chain Models Hint At A Massive Rally (https://www.newsbtc.com/news/dogecoin/dogecoin-explode-on-chain-models-massive-rally/)