Dogecoin Holds Near $0.161 Amid Uncertain Market Phase

Dogecoin, a popular cryptocurrency, was trading near $0.162 in late trading on June 26, showing little change for the day but still more than 13% above the swing low from the previous Sunday. Despite this stability, the market is in a critical phase, according to YouTube analyst More Crypto Online, who describes the situation as a "wait-and-see" scenario that could lead to either a significant upward movement or a decline back to $0.14.

In a recent video titled “Is DOGE About to CRASH or SOAR? Price Analysis & Scenarios,” the Elliott-wave commentator argues that the recovery from the June 22 low is incomplete. He notes that the rise so far is only a three-wave move, and a full five-wave sequence is necessary to confirm a new bullish trend. This means traders should not assume that the worst is over until the full sequence is completed.

The analyst identifies the June 22 low within a demand band between $0.15 and $0.14, which includes the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the May–June rally and sits just above April’s cycle low. From this point, Dogecoin bounced in an a-b-c recovery pattern, with the third wave peaking at $0.169, which aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension expected in a healthy third wave. If the price can now form a fourth-wave higher low and extend to a fifth-wave high near $0.174–$0.177, the analyst suggests that this would complete the five-wave sequence, providing a setup for further gains.

Until this confirmation, the move remains a “chameleon-like” B-wave, which is prone to deeper pullbacks compared to the more bullish wave-two alternative. The key level to watch is $0.158. A break below this level would indicate that the upside-reversal attempt has failed, potentially leading to a test of the $0.14 support level. Conversely, holding above $0.158 and breaking through the $0.17 handle would provide the first evidence of a durable bottom.

The stakes are high because confirming a five-wave impulse would require subsequent corrections to respect a higher-low framework, allowing traders to reposition with clearer risk parameters. Failure to achieve this could drag Dogecoin back into the wide consolidation range that has dominated June, risking a shift in sentiment toward a prolonged downside trend.

Currently, Dogecoin's near-term fate hinges on whether buyers can achieve the final fifth-wave pop without violating $0.158. The analyst concludes that the market is in a "wait-and-see" situation to determine if the five-wave sequence will be completed. Until the chart resolves, Dogecoin remains in a state of suspension between a potential technical breakout and another leg down, with the outcome depending on a single intraday signal.

At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.161.