Dogecoin's Flow Crossroads: TD Sequential Signal Meets $6B Open Interest

Dogecoin has triggered a notable technical signal that could mark a potential turning point. The TD Sequential indicator just flashed a buy signal for DOGE, according to prominent analyst Ali Charts. This development comes as the token tests critical support levels around $0.09 after a brutal week of selling pressure, having fallen approximately 18% over the past seven days.

The immediate price action shows the coin trapped in a persistent bearish structure, with the Relative Strength Index currently reading 32.85. This positioning indicates the market is approaching oversold territory, though it hasn't reached deeply oversold levels. The signal emerged after DOGE swept major downside liquidity near $0.09, a move that often precedes reversals as weak hands exit and stronger buyers accumulate.

For a confirmed reversal, buyers must defend this zone. The first major resistance lies at the 20-day simple moving average near $0.114, a level that has consistently rejected recovery attempts. A sustained break above that would target the prior range high near $0.138.

Liquidity Sweeps and Open Interest: The Flow Counter-Test

The technical signal gains weight from a significant liquidity sweep. Dogecoin recently cleared major downside orders clustered near the $0.09 support level, a move that often signals the exhaustion of bearish momentum. This action followed four months of consolidation, meaning the price action has been a strategic test of demand. For the TD Sequential buy signal to hold, buyers must now defend this newly cleared zone, turning it into a new support base.

Yet, the broader market context presents a mixed flow picture. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are pushing higher, driving a potential altcoin rotation, Dogecoin itself is facing a correction within the altcoin sector. This divergence suggests that capital is not yet flowing broadly into meme coins, which could limit the upside if the reversal signal triggers a rally. The weekly Price Momentum Oscillator now sits at levels that historically preceded massive historical rallies, indicating extreme pessimism. This sets up a classic contrarian setup, where deep pessimism can fuel a sharp rebound if demand materializes.

The critical test is volume and follow-through. A true reversal requires sustained buying pressure to break above the 20-day moving average near $0.114. Without it, the sweep and signal may merely mark a temporary bounce within a larger downtrend. The flow counter-test is clear: the market must show it is willing to pay more than the current price to defend the newly established support.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch for Flow Confirmation

The flow setup now hinges on a decisive breakout. The immediate catalyst is a clean break above the $0.25 resistance zone. A confirmed close above that level would validate the TD Sequential buy signal and signal a shift in momentum. This move could unlock a more aggressive rally, with the next major targets in the $0.28–$0.30 range. The key near-term flow confirmation would be a surge in trading volume accompanying this breakout, proving that fresh capital is flowing into the asset.

Failure to hold above the $0.21 support level, however, would open the door for a retest of deeper bearish territory. This support is anchored by the 34 EMA and the 50 SMA, and a decisive break below it would invalidate the current consolidation structure. It would signal that the flow remains bearish, potentially leading to a retest of the 100 SMA and a deeper correction. The market must show it is willing to defend the base.

The derivatives market adds another layer to watch. Dogecoin's open interest has surged to $6 billion, the highest level since late 2024. This massive OI indicates significant capital is allocated to new positions, which can amplify price moves in either direction. For a bullish flow-driven move to sustain, we need to see this open interest rise alongside price and volume. If the price breaks higher with rising OI, it confirms institutional participation. If OI peaks and price stalls, it could signal a trap for leveraged longs.