Dogecoin Faces 30% Drop Risk If Price Falls Below $0.168

Dogecoin's price is currently in a tight range, with a significant move potentially on the horizon. After months of fluctuating between levels, the meme coin is now hovering just above a crucial support level, making this a critical juncture. Market analyst Ali has warned that if Dogecoin fails to maintain its position above $0.168, it could experience a substantial drop of up to 30%. This warning was shared in a post on X, emphasizing the importance of holding this price point to avoid further losses.

Technical analysis reveals that Dogecoin has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern since February 2025. The trendlines of this pattern are converging, indicating reduced volatility and building pressure. As the price approaches the apex of the triangle, a breakout is imminent, although the direction of this move remains uncertain until confirmed by volume. The $0.168 mark is pivotal in the current market structure, aligning with the triangle’s ascending trendline and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone. Currently, Dogecoin is trading around $0.1754, just above this critical level. A sustained daily close below $0.168 would break the pattern’s lower boundary, suggesting a bearish breakdown and potentially pushing the asset toward $0.117. This projected drop aligns with the 30% decline warned by Ali, who noted that this price zone serves as Dogecoin's last line of defense. A breach could accelerate selling momentum.

Dogecoin has faced resistance in the $0.21–$0.23 region, which includes the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels—both strong resistance zones. These levels have previously rejected several rally attempts, keeping the price within the tightening pattern. For bullish momentum to return, Dogecoin would need to clear this resistance with a strong breakout, supported by volume confirmation to validate any upward move beyond the triangle’s upper trendline. Short-term analysis indicates bearish pressure building, driven by lower highs and the approach toward key support. While the mid-term trend remains neutral within the triangle, the next few daily closes could shift this balance. The long-term bias stays corrective unless Dogecoin reclaims levels above $0.27.

The upcoming sessions will determine whether Dogecoin extends its consolidation or begins a new downward leg. Traders are closely monitoring for confirmation of either a breakout or a breakdown. The analyst's forecast suggests that if Dogecoin fails to stay above $0.168, it could experience a significant drop, potentially as much as 30%. This warning underscores the importance of the $0.168 support level and the potential for a bearish breakdown if this level is breached. The symmetrical triangle pattern and the convergence of trendlines indicate building pressure, with a breakout imminent but direction uncertain until confirmed by volume. The resistance zones at $0.21–$0.23 and the bearish pressure in the short term further complicate the outlook, with the next few daily closes being crucial in determining the direction of Dogecoin's price movement.