Dogecoin Faces 21% Drop as Musk Departure Fuels Bearish Trend

Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently facing significant scrutiny, not for a meme-driven surge, but due to concerns about a potential dramatic decline. As June 2025 begins, several warning signs are evident on the charts, and recent developments involving Elon Musk stepping away from his role in a government initiative have added to the uncertainty. This raises the question: is this the start of Dogecoin's price downfall, or is the market overreacting?

Technical analysis indicates that Dogecoin is trading at a critical level of $0.19009, dangerously close to key support zones. On the daily chart, DOGE has fallen below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are at $0.22253 and $0.19578 respectively. The proximity to the 100-day SMA at $0.18874 is particularly concerning. If this level fails to hold, the next significant support lies near $0.150, representing a 21% drop from current levels.

The hourly chart reinforces this bearish outlook. Since May 29, DOGE has been in a steady downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The price is suppressed below all key moving averages, with strong resistance around $0.195 and $0.207. Short-term momentum remains weak, and every intraday bounce is being sold into.

Numerically, the decline from the $0.207 resistance to the current price of $0.190 represents an 8.21% drop. If Dogecoin breaks the $0.188 support, the likely fall to $0.150 would mean approximately a 21% downside. While a theoretical 100% loss to zero may sound extreme, the current trend is heavily bearish.

Elon Musk's recent departure from his role as lead adviser of the Department of Government Efficiency has added to the market's uncertainty. Although the connection between real DOGE and this political appointment was always tongue-in-cheek, the crypto market often blurs the lines between satire and sentiment. For Dogecoin, which derives much of its value from sentiment and is closely tied to Musk’s persona, this departure is more than symbolic. It removes a key bullish catalyst, as Musk's tweets about DOGE in the past have consistently led to price spikes. Without him in the narrative, investor confidence is visibly fading.

Technically, a complete collapse to zero is improbable unless there is a protocol failure, legal ban, or massive delisting wave. However, a 60–80% decline from current levels is feasible under extreme bearish pressure. If DOGE loses the $0.150 support, the next major support lies at $0.10, followed by $0.05—levels not seen since early 2023. This is supported by chart-based Fibonacci extensions, which suggest that using the high of $0.45 and recent swing low of $0.15, the 1.618 extension lands near $0.05, giving weight to the bearish thesis.

Social media interest in DOGE is also declining. Google Trends data shows that Dogecoin price searches have fallen over 70% since April 2025. These are signs of drying demand, which is never a good omen for a speculative asset.

The odds are stacking up against Dogecoin in June 2025. The charts are clearly bearish, key supports are weakening, and Musk—the lifeline of Dogecoin's hype—has exited the narrative stage. A complete crash to zero remains unlikely without catastrophic news, but a fall to $0.10 or even $0.05 is technically within reach if support at $0.188 and $0.150 collapses. For now, cautious traders are advised to stay on the sidelines or consider short positions with proper risk management. As the meme fades and the fundamentals remain weak, Dogecoin might be heading back to where it came from—hype with no support.