Is Dogecoin Entering a Legitimate Third Bull Cycle in 2025?

The cryptocurrency market has long been fascinated by Dogecoin (DOGE), the meme-inspired asset that defied expectations in 2017 and 2021. Now, as 2025 unfolds, analysts are debating whether DOGE is on the cusp of a third major bull cycle. Drawing from technical patterns, on-chain metrics, and institutional developments, this analysis examines the evidence for a potential resurgence-and what it could mean for investors.

Technical Patterns: Echoes of the Past

Dogecoin's price action in 2025 mirrors key structures observed during its previous bull runs. The most compelling signal is the reclamation of the 25-month moving average as a support level. Historically, this indicator marked the start of explosive rallies in 2017 and 2021, and its current role as a floor suggests a bullish shift is underway.

Additionally, DOGE is forming a monthly ascending channel, a pattern that preceded major surges in 2016 and 2020. This structure, combined with growing accumulation by large holders and rising trading volume, signals increasing market interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly charts is also showing strength akin to early 2020 readings, which preceded DOGE's historic rally, as noted by Coinotag.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation and Contractions

On-chain data reinforces the technical narrative. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to 0.97, indicating that holders are selling at a loss or break-even point, according to an FXStreet analysis. This is a bullish contraction signal, as it removes excessive selling pressure from the market. Meanwhile, futures Open Interest (OI) has declined to $1.95 billion from a peak of $6 billion, suggesting reduced short-term demand and potential for a rebound; the FXStreet piece also highlights this decline.

Long-term wallets are also showing reduced selling pressure, a sign that patient capital is accumulating DOGE ahead of a potential parabolic move, according to CryptoFrontNews. These metrics align with historical patterns where bear markets were followed by strong accumulation phases before explosive growth.

Institutional Developments: A New Era?

Institutional interest in DOGE is gaining momentum. Coinbase's recent partnership with Webull to offer Dogecoin futures trading has expanded access to derivatives markets, potentially boosting liquidity and participation. However, regulatory headwinds persist. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the approval of Dogecoin spot ETFs, which could keep the price suppressed in the short term, as noted by FXStreet.

Challenges and Risks

While the technical and on-chain signals are encouraging, risks remain. The broader crypto market is still recovering from a prolonged bear phase, and macroeconomic factors-such as interest rates and global economic stability-could impact DOGE's trajectory. Additionally, the lack of a clear fundamental narrative (unlike Bitcoin's store-of-value appeal or Ethereum's smart contract utility) makes DOGE's price action more susceptible to sentiment shifts.

Conclusion: A Cautious Bull Case

If historical patterns hold, Dogecoin could see a 4,447% increase in price, targeting around $7.21, an outcome highlighted by Coinotag. This would mirror the 21,000% surge in 2021 and the 2017 rally, reinforcing the idea of cyclical bull waves. However, investors must remain cautious. The current setup is promising, but execution will depend on sustained accumulation, favorable regulatory developments, and broader market conditions.

For now, the technical and on-chain evidence suggests DOGE is entering a critical phase. Whether this marks the start of a third bull cycle-or a false breakout-will depend on how these dynamics evolve in the coming months.