Dogecoin Drops 3.6% in 24 Hours, Hovers at $0.1649

Dogecoin, the popular meme cryptocurrency, has experienced a 3.6% decline in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.1649. This downward trend has been ongoing since early March, erasing most of its gains from late 2024 and breaking below key support levels.

Technical analysis indicates that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped into extreme oversold territory on multiple timeframes. On the 1-hour chart, the RSI hovers between 25 and 27, while the 4-hour chart shows readings below 10, a rare occurrence that often precedes a price bounce. The daily RSI is currently at 32-33, approaching but not yet in oversold territory. These readings suggest heavy selling pressure but also indicate the potential for a price correction as buyers may see opportunity at these levels.

Despite the short-term bearish outlook, long-term technical indicators show reasons for optimism. Dogecoin continues to hold above its long-term ascending channel support, a trendline that has provided reliable support since 2015. The recent pullback brought DOGE to around $0.17, just above the critical 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.18395. If historical patterns repeat, this could mark a turning point before a move back toward the mid-range of the channel at approximately $0.56.

On-chain data provides another positive signal. The Accumulation/Distribution Line measured 20.28 billion DOGE recently, indicating that long-term holders continue to accumulate coins even as prices consolidate. Wallet data shows that large holders aren’t rushing to sell. Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE, as well as those holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE, have shown steady accumulation throughout March. This suggests larger players may be positioning for potential upside.

However, Dogecoin faces near-term headwinds. It remains below both the 50 and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart, with the 50 SMA acting as resistance at $0.176. A reclaim of the $0.18 level could signal the start of a reversal, especially if supported by increasing volume.

Elon Musk recently addressed speculation about government use of Dogecoin. Despite the playful naming of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), Musk confirmed the US government has no plans to use the cryptocurrency. Musk has indicated he may end his role with D.O.G.E. by May, having set a goal to accomplish the agency’s mandate within 130 days. He told Fox News, “I think we will have accomplished most of the work required to reduce the deficit by a trillion dollars within that timeframe.”

Crypto analysts remain divided on DOGE’s future price action. Some point to the token’s history of strong rallies following major corrections, citing patterns from the 2017 and 2024 bull cycles. Others note that potential catalysts could include SEC approval of proposed Dogecoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). From a technical perspective, the four-hour RSI breaching “oversold” territory combined with a breakout from a months-long falling wedge pattern may signal a recovery in the short term.

For near-term price action, market watchers are focused on how Dogecoin reacts at the current $0.165 level. If buyers step in, a move toward $0.172 or higher could happen quickly. But if selling pressure continues, DOGE might extend its decline before attempting recovery. Dogecoin finds itself at a key inflection point. While price holds above its decade-long ascending channel and large wallets quietly accumulate, confirming a bullish trend will require a sustained breakout above $0.18. If momentum builds, mid-range targets between $0.27 and $0.56 could come into play.