Dogecoin at Critical Juncture with 6-7% Rebound

Dogecoin is currently at a pivotal technical juncture, exhibiting a rare combination of bullish indicators. However, a single misstep could undermine this setup entirely. In a June 24 video analysis, crypto strategist Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) discussed why Dogecoin’s recent rebound from the $0.14 region could signal the start of a new uptrend or the final surge before a breakdown.

Kevin emphasized the significance of the current price level, noting that Dogecoin is at a critical zone defined by the weekly 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA), the weekly 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. This confluence of levels between $0.143 and $0.127 is what he refers to as a “make-or-break zone,” with Dogecoin currently positioned right in the middle.

The analyst had previously entered a swing long position at $0.141, identifying this area as a strong risk-reward trade zone. He noted that even in the worst-case scenario, a stop loss could be placed below this level, but the potential upside is substantial. Since then, Dogecoin has bounced back by approximately 6–7%, but the real test is yet to come.

Kevin highlighted that this level has served as structural support since the end of the 2022–2023 bear market. The macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, drawn from Dogecoin’s full bull run top to its bear market bottom, aligns with long-standing trendlines and a weekly demand candle. He urged traders to mark this zone on their charts.

Despite the recent bounce, Dogecoin remains below all its major daily and 4-hour moving averages. The next critical resistance level is at $0.19. Kevin explained that reclaiming $0.19 would allow Dogecoin to break back into the $0.19 to $0.26 range, which is key to any continuation higher. Until then, he cautioned against assuming a full reversal is underway, stating that there is still much work to be done.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also provides insights. Kevin pointed out that Dogecoin’s weekly RSI has repeatedly bounced off the 38 level throughout the current bull cycle. The coin is now hovering just above this zone. He warned that any drop below 38 on the weekly RSI could lead to a breakdown of the $0.143 to $0.127 range, which would be concerning.

Momentum indicators on multiple time frames are sending mixed signals. The daily chart shows oversold conditions, and Kevin’s custom indicator has lit up with a buy signal. On the 3-day timeframe, the momentum wave is attempting to move upward, while money flow is beginning to tick slightly higher. Kevin noted that the recent 3-day candle was strong, indicating solid demand at major support.

However, Kevin urged caution, stating that if the upward momentum does not materialize and Dogecoin starts to head lower, the daily time frame may not produce a buy signal or much upside, leading to a potential rollover. This would indicate that Dogecoin’s support is at risk.

On the DOGE/BTC pair, Kevin noted that Dogecoin has returned to a critical support zone he previously highlighted. The strength of this zone will determine whether Dogecoin can maintain its relative strength against Bitcoin or continue to decline as Bitcoin’s dominance increases. He reiterated that Dogecoin’s performance is closely tied to Bitcoin’s movements and USDT dominance.

Kevin concluded with a warning based on his extensive experience in the market. He noted that the first move out of these patterns can sometimes be the wrong move, trapping traders. While a reversal may be underway, confirmation is crucial—and the climb above $0.19 remains the key. For now, Dogecoin is on the edge, with both bullish signals and risks present.

At the time of reporting, DOGE was trading at $0.166.