Dogecoin's Circulating Supply Surges 40% Since 2021 Peak
3min read Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen a significant increase in its circulating supply since its 2021 all-time high, which has important implications for its market cap requirements. The meme coin, which was originally created as a joke, reached an all-time high of $0.7376 and an $80 billion market cap in 2021, largely due to the promotion by Elon Musk on social media. However, the economic landscape for DOGE has changed dramatically since then.
Unlike Bitcoin, which has a capped supply, Dogecoin was designed with an infinite supply. This inflationary mechanism has important consequences for price targets. Since reaching its peak in 2021, Dogecoin’s circulating supply has increased by over 40%. Back then, the supply was around 108 billion DOGE. Today, that figure stands at 148.83 billion. This supply expansion creates a moving target for price goals. To reach the same $0.7376 peak today, Dogecoin would require a market cap of approximately $110 billion instead of the $80 billion needed in 2021. For DOGE to hit the aspirational $1 mark, it would need to reach a market cap of around $148 billion based on current supply. And this target will continue to grow as more coins enter circulation.
Recent technical analysis shows some encouraging signs for Dogecoin investors. A “golden cross” has formed on the hourly chart, with the 50-period simple moving average crossing above the 200-period simple moving average. This technical indicator typically suggests strengthening upward momentum. Following this pattern, DOGE saw a 6% rise to $0.166. However, caution remains warranted. A “death cross” was observed on the daily chart last month, indicating potential bearish pressure over longer timeframes. Key resistance levels are building at $0.181 and $0.257. Breaking above these could trigger a stronger rally. Support levels sit at $0.142 and $0.129.
Beyond charts, on-chain data reveals substantial whale activity. Large investors acquired 80 million DOGE tokens within a 24-hour period. Historically, such accumulation by deep-pocketed investors has preceded price increases. This whale behavior suggests renewed confidence in Dogecoin’s prospects, despite recent market challenges.
The elusive $1 milestone remains the holy grail for many Dogecoin supporters. Various AI platforms have offered their predictions on when this target might be reached. Elon Musk’s Grok AI suggests 2026 as a realistic timeframe for Dogecoin to reach $1, rather than 2025 as some had hoped. Grok emphasized that “Dogecoin’s biggest surges are not always technical—they’re cultural,” highlighting the role of viral moments and social media buzz in driving price action. CoinCodex’s algorithm offers a more conservative outlook, predicting DOGE won’t reach $1 until 2029, projecting a longer timeline of price consolidation. ChatGPT provides a range of scenarios for 2025: a bullish case of $0.50, a base case of $0.30, and a bearish case of $0.10. This reflects the high volatility and unpredictability characteristic of meme coins. One analyst known as “Lord of Alts” predicted DOGE could first reclaim the $0.50 level before pushing toward $1. Meanwhile, another analyst flagged $0.5696 as a major resistance level, suggesting that surpassing this barrier could open the door to much higher prices.
Despite the optimistic price predictions, Dogecoin’s network metrics tell a more sobering story. According to data from Santiment, daily active addresses have plummeted by 98% since November. From a peak of over 1.6 million daily active addresses, current figures show just 39,507 active addresses. This dramatic decline in engagement has coincided with DOGE’s 49% price drop since the start of 2025. This disconnect between price expectations and actual network usage presents a significant challenge. For Dogecoin to achieve its lofty price targets, it likely needs to reverse this trend and drive meaningful adoption. In an extreme scenario where Dogecoin could attract 100 million daily users, some projections suggest a market cap of $750 billion might be possible. This would translate to a DOGE price of approximately $5 – representing a massive 3,025% gain from current levels. However, such projections remain highly speculative. They depend on adoption scaling at a global level and overcoming the current decline in network engagement.
The path forward for Dogecoin will likely be influenced by broader crypto market movements, particularly Bitcoin’s trajectory. A strong Bitcoin rally could lift meme coins along with it. For now, DOGE is bouncing from a critical support zone between $0.139 and $0.150. If it can flip $0.196 into support, further rallies may be possible. Dogecoin’s challenge lies in balancing its meme-driven origins with genuine investor demand and strengthening network fundamentals. While recent technical signals and whale activity provide some optimism, the sharp decline in user engagement suggests a long road ahead. Dogecoin remains one of the most unpredictable tokens in the crypto space, capable of explosive moves driven by social media, celebrity endorsements, and shifting investor sentiment.
