Dogecoin's Bullish Resurgence: Decoding Whale Behavior and Market Sentiment in Late 2025

The recent price movements of Dogecoin (DOGE) have sparked renewed interest among investors, with conflicting signals from whale activity and market sentiment creating a complex narrative. As the cryptocurrency navigates a critical juncture in late 2025, understanding the interplay between large-scale holder behavior and technical indicators becomes essential for assessing its trajectory.

Whale Behavior: Accumulation Amidst Uncertainty

Dogecoin's whale activity in late 2025 reveals a duality of caution and opportunism. In early November, large holders accumulated approximately 4.72 billion DOGE, increasing their holdings from 27.7 billion to 32.4 billion coins, as reported by Santiment analyst Ali Martinez. This strategic buying occurred during a period of price weakness, with DOGE trading around $0.175, suggesting that whales viewed the dip as a potential entry point. However, by late November, whale activity plummeted to its lowest level in two months, with major holder transactions dropping to levels last seen in late September. This decline raised concerns about reduced institutional interest and potential selling pressure, as wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE sold sharply, reducing their stash by 4.28 billion tokens (worth ~$730 million at $0.17) since October 11.

The divergence in whale behavior-mid-tier whales accumulating while large wallets redistributed-highlights a lack of alignment among major holders.

For instance, wallets holding over 1 billion DOGE traded in and out throughout 2025 without forming a clear buying trend, whereas mid-tier whales (100 million to 1 billion DOGE) increased holdings by 4.7 billion tokens since October 28. This fragmentation weakens price momentum, as whales fail to coordinate a unified directional bias.

Market Sentiment: Bearish Retail Dynamics and Technical Divergence

Market sentiment for DOGE in late 2025 remains fragile, with retail traders dominating the bearish narrative. Futures markets show limited capital to drive upward momentum, as short liquidation leverage ($776.75 million) far exceeds long positions ($151.77 million). On-chain metrics further underscore this imbalance: the HODL Waves metric indicates declining confidence, with short-term holders (1–3 months) dropping from 17.47% to 7.24% of supply, while long-term holders (1–2 years) fell from 40.32% to 21.87% (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dogecoin-faces-toughest-q4-years-070000607.html).

Technical analysis adds another layer of complexity. DOGE's weekly chart broke below its trend line, with On-Balance Volume (OBV) declining and derivative data showing bearish dominance. A critical support zone forms around $0.08, while resistance near $0.20 remains untested. The recent breakdown below $0.18, accompanied by high-volume spikes and failed recovery attempts, suggests institutional repositioning rather than panic selling. However, a confirmed break below $0.18 risks a drop toward $0.07, while a rebound from $0.18 could reinvigorate the price toward $0.26–$0.33.

The Path Forward: ETFs and Structural Risks

The potential launch of the Bitwise Spot ETF and Grayscale Dogecoin ETF in late 2025 introduces speculative momentum, with some analysts suggesting these products could catalyze a late Q4 rebound. However, without alignment between whale activity and broader market conditions, DOGE's prospects for a strong finish to 2025 remain uncertain.

Structural risks persist, including low liquidity and divergent whale behavior. For example, while a falling wedge pattern on the 12-hour timeframe hints at an 80%–90% rally if resistance is breached, the OBV's decline and weak volume support for price moves indicate fragility. Additionally, a bullish MACD crossover and higher candles after a prolonged decline suggest early reversal signals, but these must be validated by sustained volume and whale accumulation.

Conclusion

Dogecoin's recent bullish resurgence is a tale of two forces: whale accumulation in early November and a broader bearish sentiment driven by retail dynamics and technical divergence. While strategic buying by mid-tier whales and potential ETF inflows offer hope for a rebound, the lack of coordination among large holders and weak liquidity pose significant risks. Investors must remain cautious, as DOGE's path to $0.28–$0.30 hinges on overcoming key resistance levels and aligning whale behavior with institutional adoption. In the absence of a unified bullish narrative, the cryptocurrency's short-term outlook remains precarious, with volatility likely to persist.