Dogecoin's Third Bull Wave: A Historical and Technical Case for 2025

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE) has carved a unique niche, blending meme culture with speculative fervor. As of October 2025, the digital asset is poised for a potential third bull wave, driven by a confluence of historical price patterns and technical indicators. This analysis explores how Dogecoin's trajectory mirrors its past cycles and what this means for investors navigating the 2025 market.

Historical Patterns: The Blueprint for a Bull Wave

Dogecoin's first major bull wave in 2021 saw the price surge to $0.22, fueled by Elon Musk's social media influence and speculation about integration into platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Tesla, according to a Coinpedia report. The second wave in early 2024 broke this previous high, driven by renewed interest in X Payments and content monetization, the same Coinpedia piece noted. Both waves followed a similar structure: a sharp rally, consolidation, and eventual breakout.

Crucially, these cycles were underpinned by the 25-month moving average, which acted as a dynamic support level; in 2017 and 2021 this indicator marked the start of parabolic moves, according to a Coinotag analysis. Today, Dogecoin is trading near $0.195, with the 25-month moving average retested as support, suggesting a potential repeat of history, the Coinotag piece suggests.

Technical Validation: Indicators Signal Momentum

Technical analysis paints a bullish picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly charts has risen from oversold territory, mirroring conditions that preceded the 2021 surge, as noted by Coinotag. Volume accumulation near $0.19 and $0.20 further reinforces this narrative, as increased buying pressure often precedes breakouts.

However, not all indicators are in unison. While TradingView technicals currently rate Dogecoin as a "sell" based on moving averages, oscillators suggest a buy rating. This divergence underscores the importance of a multi-indicator approach. For instance, a monthly close above $0.20 could validate the third bull wave, potentially propelling the price toward $0.3, as the Coinpedia piece noted.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation and Investor Confidence

On-chain data adds another layer of validation. Approximately 10.5 billion DOGE tokens have been purchased near $0.21, indicating strong accumulation and reduced selling pressure, according to a Coinotag note. This aligns with historical patterns where large-scale buying often precedes explosive rallies.

Moreover, Dogecoin's dominance metrics have broken a 3.5-year downtrend, confirmed by a bullish pin bar formation during a recent market crash, according to a CryptoNewsLand report. Such on-chain signals suggest sustained upside momentum, particularly if the price reclaims the $0.21 level, as Coinotag has observed.

Market Context: A Recurring Cycle in Motion

The broader market context supports a bullish outlook. Dogecoin is positioned within an ascending channel, a pattern observed before major rallies in 2017 and 2021, as Coinotag observed. Analysts like EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL on X argue that the cryptocurrency is "loading" for a third bull wave, with price action mirroring past cycles, a point also highlighted by Coinotag.

A breakout above the 25-month moving average and key resistance levels could confirm this narrative, potentially leading to a 4,447% gain if historical patterns hold, the Coinotag analysis projected. This projection assumes continued adoption in platforms like X Payments and sustained investor sentiment.

Conclusion: Preparing for the Next Leg

Dogecoin's potential third bull wave in 2025 is not a random event but a product of recurring technical and historical patterns. From the 25-month moving average to RSI divergence and on-chain accumulation, the indicators suggest a high probability of a breakout. While risks remain-such as macroeconomic shifts or regulatory changes-the alignment of these factors makes a compelling case for cautious optimism.

For investors, the key will be monitoring price action above $0.20 and confirming volume surges. If Dogecoin can sustain its current momentum, it may well replicate the explosive gains of its past cycles, cementing its role as a cornerstone of the memecoin era.