Dogecoin's 9% Drop: ETF Hopes vs. SEC Hurdles?

Source: [1] title1 (url1) [2] title2 (url2) [3] title3 (url3)

Dogecoin (DOGE) has declined 9% over the past week, trading at $0.2409 as of September 2025, according to Coinglass data. Despite the near-term sell-off, bullish sentiment is gaining traction among traders and analysts, driven by preparations for spot ETFs and growing institutional interest. The 21Shares Dogecoin ETF (TDOG) recently appeared on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) prelaunch table, signaling progress toward a potential launch. This follows the debut of the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF (DOJE) last week, the first U.S.-listed fund to offer direct exposure to the meme coin.

Market participants are closely monitoring the regulatory landscape. While the DTCC listing indicates that 21Shares’ ETF is in the final stages of preparation, it does not guarantee approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC’s review process for crypto ETFs remains opaque, with decisions often delayed by public comment periods and legal challenges. Bitwise’s DOGE ETF application is also pending, with a decision expected as late as early 2026. Analysts caution that regulatory uncertainty remains a key risk for short-term price movements.

Technical indicators suggest potential for a rebound. Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez highlighted current price levels as an ideal entry point for buyers ahead of a possible breakout to $0.50. Mags, known as TheScalpingPro, projected a more ambitious target of $1, noting that a 3.3x gain from current levels is achievable. These forecasts align with historical patterns, such as Dogecoin’s 170x surge in 2020 amid initial skepticism. Institutional activity further fuels optimism: CleanCore Solutions recently added 100 million DOGE to its treasury, raising its holdings to over 600 million coins, now valued at $160 million. Additionally, Alex Spiro, a lawyer for Tesla CEO Elon Musk, is leading a Dogecoin treasury company planning to raise $200 million to manage DOGE reserves.

On-chain data reveals mixed signals. Coinglass reported $9.20 million in DOGE liquidations over the past 24 hours, with $6.77 million in long positions sold, indicating short-term selling pressure. However, Bitinfocharts noted an increase in large holders, with addresses containing 10–100 billion DOGE rising to two and 1–10 million DOGE addresses increasing to 4,293 from 4,275. This suggests growing accumulation by significant investors, potentially signaling long-term confidence in the asset.

The broader market context underscores the significance of ETF launches. The REX-Osprey DOGE ETF (DOJE) has a total expense ratio of 1.5% and holds 60.45% of its assets in the CME CF DOGE-USD New York Rate. While DOJE’s initial performance remains untested, its structure—directly holding Dogecoin and offering staking rewards—could attract investors seeking exposure to the meme coin without direct custody risks. The 21Shares ETF, if approved, would likely face similar demand, given its track record with other crypto ETPs.

Despite bullish catalysts, risks persist. The SEC’s stance on crypto ETFs remains a wildcard, with past rejections of Bitcoin ETF proposals underscoring the agency’s cautious approach. Additionally, the volatile nature of meme coins, coupled with macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and broader market sentiment, could amplify price swings. Traders should also weigh the potential for regulatory actions or market manipulation, which remain unresolved challenges in the crypto space.

The convergence of ETF developments, institutional adoption, and technical optimism highlights a pivotal moment for Dogecoin. While the 9% weekly decline reflects short-term volatility, the underlying narrative of growing institutional participation and regulatory progress suggests a potential turning point. As the SEC’s decision on the 21Shares ETF looms, market participants will likely remain split between cautious optimism and risk aversion, with outcomes hinging on both regulatory clarity and broader market dynamics.

Source: [1] title1 (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/09/47815828/dogecoin-down-9-in-1-week-but-etf-preparations-fuel-bulls-hopes) [2] title2 (https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/09/23/21shares-doge-etf-listed-on-dtcc-ahead-of-launch/) [3] title3 (https://www.rexshares.com/doje/)